Top Ten Senate seats likely to switch party: Can the Democrats reach filibuster-proof sixty?

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
09/21/2007
The Friday Senate Line: A New Number One

We knew that September was going to be a crucial month when it came to determing the Senate landscape, but so much has happened since the last Line that it took even us by surprise. Republican Sens. John Warner (Va.) and Chuck Hagel (Neb.) announced their retirements; former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) and Mark Warner (Va.) announced their candidacies; former Nebraska Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey is seriously considering a race. Taken as a whole those developments have Democrats increasingly optimistic about significantly widening their majority in 2008 -- maybe even to a filibuster-proof 60 seats....As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties -- and, yes, we do have a new number one this month....

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3. Colorado (R): The open seat race between Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) drops two slots this month but the fundamental dynamic of the race remains unaltered. Republicans are already beginning to paint Udall as a "Boulder liberal" while Democrats are making the counter argument that Schaffer is far more conservative than the average Colorado voter. Having huddled with Schaffer earlier this week, we came away impressed by his plainspokeness and his -- to our mind -- smart strategic plan to run as a reform-minded candidate. Republicans are pushing back hard on the idea that this race is Udall's to lose. Schaffer's campaign released a poll that showed him trailing Udall by just two points in a three-way race. And they make the argument that the Democrats who have been elected in the last few years have run as conservatives, putting to lie the idea that the state had fundamentally changed its ideological underpinnings.(Previous ranking: 1)

2. New Hampshire (R): Shaheen's decision to seek a rematch against Sen. John Sununu (R) wasn't surprising but it was monumental in terms of Democrats' chances in the state. Shaheen's candidacy led to the other two serious Democrats -- Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and former congressional candidate Katrina Swett -- to drop out of the contest, decisions that allow the former governor to focus all of her money and time on Sununu. Shaheen starts this race as the favorite, with polling showing her ahead by somewhere between five and 15 points. Republicans believe they have a perfect blueprint to use against Shaheen -- the successful campaign they ran against her in 2002. (The National Republican Senatorial Committee has even started re-running ads that aired in the '02 race against Shaheen on a new website.) The problem with that logic? In 2002, President Bush and the Republican brand were at their acme; today, at least in New Hampshire, the reverse is true. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia (R): The announcements by Republican Sen. John Warner (retirement) and former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner (running) make this seat the new number one on the Line. Mark Warner left office in 2005 with stratospheric job approval ratings and little has changed since then. Republicans insist that Warner is vulnerable to charges of flip-floppery (he said as a candidate he would not raise taxes, but did once he was in office) and we believe them. The problem is that even if they can take some of the shine off of Warner, he still has plenty of cushion over either Rep. Tom Davis or former Gov. Jim Gilmore who seem almost cerrtain to engage in a costly fight for the GOP nod. Virginia's demographic shift isn't as drastic as some Democrats would have you believe but Warner's strength outside of northern Virginia will be hard for Republicans to counter. (Previous ranking: 4)

(NOTE: The other states, in order of most likely to change party, are: Louisiana, Oregon, Maine, Nebraska, Minnesota, Alaska and South Dakota.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/the_friday_senate_line_change.html

If the Dems have 75 senate seats after the 08 elections, they will rotate 25 at a time between them to vote with the republicans just to make it fair. The storm will pass my sanity shall return.

running things even from a "minority" position. What will it take for things to change? Get rid of lobbyists? Start the whole thing over? Not feeling real hopeful lately.

(sorry, no link) that Kerrey is now considered less likely to run for the Nebraska seat. Just FYI.

would they all agree to vote for cloture? Would there be a gang of ? that joined the 'centrists'?

There are currently only 48 democratic senators plus Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont. Joementum counts in the Repub column.

If we had 60 seats, they probably won't need to overcome the threat of veto because we'll have the White House also.

As for the filibuster problem, some of the new Dem senators are bound to vote with the GOP. How many seats do we need to actually have a filibuster-proof majority? More like 70.

Q: What kind of political party needs 65-70 seats in order to govern?

they think Coleman's solidifying his position, but the last poll showed Franken closing in and that he's now within the marin of error 45, coleman, 41 franken