A Clear Path to the Nomination
It is important to take a moment every once in a while to reflect on all the progress we have made together in this campaign.
When we got into this race as a largely unknown candidate new to the national political stage, we never expected that nine months later at this stage of the race, we would be in a tight three way race in Iowa; leading in the money race; have the largest grassroots organization in modern political history; and have an organizational advantage in the early states and February 5 over a quasi-incumbent from the most powerful political machine in modern political history.
While the press remains focused on the simplistic and erroneous view of national polls as predictors, the Obama campaign has several structural advantages:
Barack is the candidate with the message and biography that is most in synch with the electorate -- according to a Gallup poll in September Democratic voters prefer change to experience by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent;
The largest organizations with the most experienced staff and enthusiastic volunteers in the 4 early states;
An unexpected financial advantage that allows the campaign to compete in multiple contests at the same time;
The most donors by far in the race, who as the election draws nearer will get even more active on our behalf, giving us financial sustainability;
A significant organizational advantage in February 5th states.
Well-Positioned in Iowa
Iowa is fundamentally a close three-way race with Obama, Clinton and Edwards all within the same range in most public polling. In the last month, public polls have shown each of the three candidates leading. But the truth is, caucuses are very difficult to poll, particularly in a year where turnout will likely explode with many new attendees. So instead of focusing on the polls, we are much more focused on the growth of our hard count (number of committed supporters) statewide and we remain ahead of schedule in that regard. And there are other positive trends that have emerged that are worth noting.
Because we will likely enter the caucus with thousands of potential first-time caucus attendees committed to Obama, organization is paramount. Last weekend’s Harkin Steak Fry -- Senator Tom Harkin’s annual event, where six of the Presidential candidates attended -- showcased the strength of the Obama Iowa operation in the first head-to-head battle of organization. It is estimated that 5-6,000 people attended who were committed to candidates. Of that number, approximately 3,000 Obama Iowa supporters attended. It was described by many press accounts as akin to an Obama rally. That shows not just our organizational strength, but a real commitment from our county and precinct leaders, as well as our committed supporters. Our dominating presence at the Steak Fry is an example of the enthusiasm gap that we enjoy over our fellow candidates. Our supporters will drive for hours and walk for miles to help elect Barack to the White House. "Organization plus Enthusiasm" is a time-tested formula for success in the caucuses and that is the path we are on.
More at:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post_group/ObamaHQ/CWT2
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