Obama, Romney Lead Nomination Race in Iowa, Newsweek Poll Finds

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Senator Barack Obama holds an edge over his competitors among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads among Republicans, a Newsweek magazine poll showed.

Obama, of Illinois, was backed by 28 percent of those surveyed followed by New York Senator Hillary Clinton with 24 percent, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 22 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson with 10 percent, according to the poll. The survey of Democrats who were classified as likely to attend party nominating caucuses has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points.

Twenty-four percent of likely Republican caucus-goers supported Romney. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson came in second with 16 percent, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 13 percent, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 12 percent and Arizona Senator John McCain at 9 percent. The margin of error for the Republican survey is plus or minus 9 percentage points.

The Newsweek poll contacted a total of 1,215 registered voters in Iowa Sept. 26-27.

The Iowa caucuses, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 14, traditionally are the first contest in the presidential nomination race for both parties.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a7nk0shqvfps&refer=home

bothered publishing this. It's interesting, though, that it amounts to a MOE dead-heat for Obama, Clinton & Edwards.

A poll with 3% MOE is usually worth checking out. 7% MOE is...crack.

I like how it shows the race is tight with Obama in the lead and am glad the poll was posted, but if anything, it just shows the race three months away is too close to call.

of likely Iowa caucus goers.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21036143/site/newsweek/

There's also some goodies to be had for the Clinton campaign

5b. Do you support the following STRONGLY or only moderately?

BASED ON DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
Strength of Support
Clinton Obama Edwards
Strong 55 41 37
Not Strong/Lean 45 59 63

The Obama campaign is strangely invested in this poll. I got a myspace message about it.

What is the Obama campaign gonna do if a non ARG poll comes out showing him to be in 3rd where 8 out of 10 of the most recent polls from various firms have shown him?

Obama beat both Hil and Bill. Talk about electable!!

I was worried his campaign was stalling. This gives a sign that things are working in Iowa. Now he's got to keep up the pressure. He has to be #1 or #2 in order to get enough steam to win this thing. Really he needs to be #1 because HRC is a major threat but this is a positive sign. The first in a long time I've seen come out of BO's campaign.

built and designed to peak when it needs to.

Don't think we didn't take away a thing or two from the Dean Campaign's experience in Iowa.

depends on which poll you use- an independent one or a pay for play push poll.

American Res. Group 09/26 - 09/29 600 LV 30 19 24 10 Clinton +6.0
Newsweek 09/26 - 09/27 LV 24 22 28 10 Obama +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 LV 24 22 21 13 Clinton +2.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/06 - 09/10 462 LV 28 23 19 10 Clinton +5.0
American Res. Group 08/26 - 08/29 600 LV 28 20 23 13 Clinton +5.0
Time 08/22 - 08/25 519 LV 24 29 22 11 Edwards +5.0
Strategic Vision (R) 08/17 - 08/19 600 LV 21 23 22 14 Edwards +1.0
Zogby 08/17 - 08/18 503 LV 30 23 19 10 Clinton +7.0
Univ. of Iowa 07/29 - 08/05 425 LV 27 22 22 9 Clinton +5.0

They are closer on ground IMO to the actual voters; the other polls go to places likely to encounter Hillary supporters, and significantly narrow the sample.

We still won't know until there's an actual election, but if Hilly comes in third in Iowa, watch how fast those "other " polls change.

"hey are closer on ground IMO to the actual voters;

Newsweek's poll was conducted via phone by Princeton Survey Research. The problem is more determining who is a likely voter especially for a caucus. Some firms seek to identify previous caucus goers, others simply ask if one plans on voting (hence likely voter).

"the other polls go to places likely to encounter Hillary supporters, and significantly narrow the sample."

Could you explain this because how does one go about doing that?

"We still won't know until there's an actual election,"

Agreed.

"but if Hilly comes in third in Iowa, watch how fast those "other " polls change."

If Obama comes in 3rd the polls will change. If Edwards comes in 3rd the polls will change.

After IA, the polls will change that much is certain.

Romney?

WTF?

That boy has flip-flopped on more issues than a fish on the bank of the river.

LoL