Latest Iowa poll shows Obama leading Hillary

Last night our movement hit some landmark goals: more than 500,000 donations from more than 350,000 people.

We also got news yesterday from Iowa -- we're leading in the latest Newsweek poll of likely caucus-goers. Here's the breakdown:

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 22%

And our lead climbs to 8 points when first and second choices are combined.

what invincibility?

wonder why there's rarely any mention of the other candidates. Is it because the poll just focused and asked about the Top Three, or did you just not include the other guys in your post?

but this is at the moment , a shootout between the three campaigns. I am a member of the Obama Campaign.

of the Obama campaign. Your honesty is refreshing.

I wish all the other campaign members would be as honest.

It is great, too, when someone posts something positive about their candidate without bashing all the others.

We were both out there in the freezing cold of about 12 degrees that day. Standing there listening to Obama deliever his intention to run for president and his speech, I remember being hit with this feeling that he was going to win this.
My husband told me quite sometime later he got the same feeling wash over him.

The overall numbers -- not specifically among voters who say they're "likely" to go to the caucuses -- are more favorable to HRC. This poll also suggests that HRC's supporters may be MORE SOLIDLY in her camp than are backers of Obama and Edwards, with a larger proportion of Clinton voters characterizing their support as "strong.".....
Well I guess you can smile wide with this one poll giving Obama a little lead, and that is good, but one must remember the Clinton machine is one go for it all vote getter.....HRC by 6% of total votes in Iowa....

I do thank you
Ben David

Quit trying to always rain on everyone elses parade..

Don't be such a downer!

credit to Obama leading in at least one poll.....But as I have written in here for months and I know it is highy unlikely, if HRC does not get the nomination and Obama does then unlike many in here that say they will not support HRC if she wins, I will supoort our nomination.....STRONGLY!!!
Ben David

I'm not talking about those pay for play push polls like the ones you are referencing,like the Hillary camp is fond of beating us over thehead with daily at places like DU.

This is a Newsweek independent poll.

The take away is that Hillary is trailing, but if you include the Margin of Error she could be "tied"

Our campaign has internal polls that show a pretty similar cast at this point, and not just in Iowa.

I'm just curious. Usually when I see a thread with the word Polls in the headline, my eyes roll back in my head. Because one says Candidate A is ahead in Springfield, MO, the other says Candidate B is ahead in Springfield, MO -- you know what I'm saying.

So I get confused. I've just recently learned about the "pay for play plush polls", which makes it even less of an incentive for me to read the thread.

A Newsweek independent poll makes sense to me.

And now you've thrown me for a loop with your "internal" polls. So I was just wondering how a campaign would conduct their own poll.

If the answer is too complicated, trust me, I won't get it. So save yourself the effort if that's the case. :7

The poll results reflect the answers given by the 1215 registered voters who took part in this telephone poll.

The OP clearly states that Obama is in the lead among likely caucus-goers (i.e. people who said that they will either definitely or probably take part in the Democratic caucuses).

Here once again are the numbers for likely caucus-goers in the Newsweek Poll of September 29th:

Barack Obama 28
Hillary Clinton 24
John Edwards 22
Bill Richardson 10
Joe Biden 5
Dennis Kucinich 1
Chris Dodd 1

But hey, the margin of error is 7% so it's still a 3-horse race.

The point is that Obama has a chance in Iowa, whether you like it or not.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21036143/site/newsweek

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I too have had the feeling that Obama is going to hold his own, low profile, and all of a sudden push through the stalemate.

The state-by-state polling sure has been an E ticket ride so far.

...in the LATEST poll, Clinton wins.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-710.html

My (republican) father in law is going to the Democratic primary to vote against Clinton.

My (republican) father in law is going to the Democratic primary to vote against Obama.

Upward trend for obama since polling started, with Hillary pretty stagnant in the low 30s. Edwards i'm thinking is probably pretty constant, a 1 point "drop" in a poll with a +-4% MOE is just a blip.

Every poll I have seen shows Hillary with higher negatives than Barack Obama.

So if it's a choice between Obama and Hillary (if we choose to believe the polls), it would be wrong to conclude that Hillary is the more "electable" of the two.

But it's not just the polls. Every commentator (left or right) admits that Hillary is the Democratic candidate who would unite and energize the Republican base.

But on its own - the Republican base cannot win the Presidental election (at least - not without stealing it).

They also made a point of telling me that they would NEVER vote for Clinton. You can believe me or not. I've seen it in the streets.

shite.

It was an interesting discussion - especially this part:

TIM RUSSERT: Dan Balz, a very strong supporter for Hillary Clinton said to me right now Barack Obama is in the stable. But if he gets out of the stable in Iowa and starts running, he’s a thoroughbred. Because the independents in New Hampshire could cross over and vote for him, you go to South Carolina, half the Democratic voters are African-American. We have to keep him in the stable in the Iowa. These polls indicate that he has a chance of breaking out, although she still is the front-runner.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21065954/page/4/

Of course some here will say that Tim Russert doesn't know what he is talking about. But Dan Balz of The Washington Post was on the show and did not question Russert's quote.

Oh.... Nevermind.
:eyes:

She will come out that evening after the results are announced, laugh loudly and uncontrollably (I don't want to say "cackle") and we'll all watch as her campaign slowly circles the bowl and finally goes down the drain in the following weeks.

Hey, it's only a dream for the time being ...:evilgrin:

I always get very suspicious if some Washington-insider consulting-types try to tell me that a candidate is not relevant.

Here's a case in point from the MSNBC website:

"The Obama campaign is becoming less and less relevant with each passing day"
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/28/385713.aspx

This quote is highlighted on the MSNBC politics homepage!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/

When you look at the facts and the polls and the fundraising it's simply impossible to reach the conclusion that Obama is not relevant. Not unless you are deliberately trying to undermine his campaign.

bill beat the blow-job rap. Hey, my hats off to the guy (Bill) but his act is really the same ole, same-ole song. Waching Bill doing an interview became more interesting when the volume was muted to obsreve his body jestures, facials, the men is a good con, that' is basically it.

If the internet didn't happen when he was prez wouldn't have been diddly-squat!

That is quite a margin....

More people are hearing Obama and like what he has to say and how he says it.