:D Guess we're cleaning up the Timmy mess, thank you Kos :)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/8/133528/808by kos
Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 02:46:03 PM EDT
So it's no secret that I think Edwards' decision to take public money in the primaries -- while advantageous for the primary -- is a disaster for our 2008 chances if he garnered the nomination. Why? Because Edwards would essentially be broke through the summer, until the convention in late August.
But this line of reasoning assumes that in presidential politics, the "general election" begins after the nominee is crowned at the convention. And I've realized that this is quite the assumption.
In House and Senate races, the "general election" begins the day after the primary election. The reason is obvious -- that single election determines the winner. If we had a national primary, that might also be the case. But we don't. We have states voting all over the place, beginning with Iowa (maybe) on January 14, and ending with South Dakota wrapping things up on June 3rd.
But in reality, we know the winner long before then. And unless we have the unlikely "brokered convention" (as exciting as that might be for us political junkies), fact is we'll probably know with certainty our nominee by late February at the latest.
I've been fighting through FEC regulations, and I've found nothing that states the convention is necessary for a party to declare a nominee. A nominee is a nominee when the party declares it so to the FEC. And I admit I could be misreading this thing terribly, but as far as I can tell, the National Conventions truly are nothing more than a formality.
So here's the way Edwards could theoretically be viable in the general even while taking public financing in the primary:
He wins big in the early states and cleans up on Feb. 5.
The rest of the candidates drop out, so he's the only candidate.
The DNC holds a meeting (with all its delegates) and formally recognizes Edwards as the nominee.
This one is important -- Edwards opts out of public financing in the General.
Money flows like water, and then Edwards can truly run on "ideas" knowing that 1) he'll have the money to deliver those ideas to voters, and 2) beat back the inevitable swiftboating efforts.
Of course, Edwards would be accused of hypocrisy by opting out of the general election public financing regime, especially since they've already stated that 1) Edwards opted in out of "principle", and 2) they'll opt in the general if the Republican nominee does as well. But whatever. No one cares about that sort of thing anyway. And he could always impose voluntary contribution limits like $250 to continue playing the "populist" card.
I could be all wrong about this. It really all boils down to when the "general election" begins, and whether the DNC would be able to declare it "begun" before the convention. Hopefully, people who know this stuff can clarify one way or another.