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Gallup: Obama +27 net favorable for GE - 10 points over Edwards; 20 over Clinton

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:46 PM
Original message
Gallup: Obama +27 net favorable for GE - 10 points over Edwards; 20 over Clinton
Hillary With 21% Lead Over Obama -- But 'Negatives' Remain

NEW YORK A new national Gallup Poll of Democrat shows Sen. Hillary Clinton holding what Gallup calls "a commanding lead" over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic field in the 2008 race for president. Clinton's lead over Obama is 21 percentage points in the current October 4-7 poll, at 47% to 26%.

-snip

Among Democrats that's no problem. Eighty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared with 70% for Obama and 69% for Edwards.

But among all Americans, Clinton (51%), Obama (54%), and Edwards (48%) have similar favorable ratings, with Clinton's negatives much higher -- at 44%. This leaves her, in Gallup's calculations, as just +7 in the ratings, while "Obama has a +27 net favorable rating and Edwards +17 among the general public."

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003656279

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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. yet, still in third place in GE match-ups.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Here's a direct link to the poll for the junkies out there
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. Thanks, rinsd nt
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. Whose net favorables are higher among Democrats...
And who is ahead preference wise...

I'm sure you meant to include those...

Also looks to me like Hillary's favorable are steadily increasing...already in normal territory for a victorious Presidential candidate...

Alot of good news for Hillary there...
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. No I didn't mean to include those
The OP is about the GE part of life :hi:
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. Interesting. Hillary's favorables among Dems are 11% higher than Obama's.
I thought everybody hated her? :eyes:
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Fer sure, she's popular with the Dems
Problem is, Democratic primary voters have picked losers in seven of the last 10 elections.

This party has an established record at picking candidates whom the public finds difficult to like.

Nominating Hillary will obviously give us a good chance to keep that unhappy record intact.

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Not obvious at all...
Obama is rapidly earning that distinction...
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. That must be why she's doing so well in head-to-head matchups with the Republicans
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Fact Free Post Of The Year
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Which part? Losing 7 of the last 10 elections?
or the fact that, once you get Hillary out of the Democratic party, around 80% of the country can't stand her?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Well just about everything you have posted...
It is not obvious Hillary would be the weakest GE candidate, looks to me like Obama wears that hat...

And Hillary's negative rating would not be 80% outside the Democratic Party...

You'll find something accurate to post here soon I'm sure...
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #15
21. Let Him Be...
Denial also precedes acceptance...

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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. Well, you're right; If she's at 17% negative in the party and 44% nationally
then only 71% of the country can't stand her once you get her out of the party.

Feel better now?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Why don't you remove Republicans from that equation and
Re-calculate...

Oh...and if you think Obama would do any better among Republicans by election day...you're dreaming...
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #25
36. obama did better than kerry in some counties in northern il
because he was running against keyes who the moderate republicans abhorred. depending on who the republicans pick, obama could pick up moderate republicans and independents. of course so could hillary
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. Better Get Your Kleenex Out
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is overwhelming Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic primary field, and slowly increasing her lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Sen. Clinton's support appears to be as deep as it is wide. In Ohio, 74 percent of her supporters say they are not too likely or not likely at all to change their mind. In Florida, 59 percent of her supporters are unlikely to change their mind; in Pennsylvania it's 56 percent.

Giuliani voters are less committed, as no more than 39 percent in any state say they are unlikely to change their mind.

Matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:

* Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 43 percent, breaking a 44 - 44 percent tie September 12;
* Ohio: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 40 percent, compared to 47 - 40 percent September 6;
* Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Giuliani 48 - 42 percent, up from 46 - 44 percent August 23

...

"The news just keeps getting better for Sen. Clinton. She has a Democratic primary lead over Sen. Obama ranging from 27 to 34 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and is widening her margin over the Republican hopefuls in each of those three critical states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Is That Why She's The Only Democrat To Be Leading In Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?
eom
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
8. lol -
Edited on Wed Oct-10-07 04:58 PM by smalll
So this tells us that, although Clinton has higher favorability numbers amongst Dems, amongst all voters, Clinton is at 51% while Obama is at 54%. And somehow that translates out into a "+7 in the ratings" for Hillary while Obama has a "+27 net favorability" which you then "plate" so fetchingly (as foodies might say) by referencing a "20 point" gap. :wtf:

What in hell does this mean? I knew when I clicked on this it would be cherry-picking of some sort. The fact you're picking imaginary (but rather complicated) cherries is just an extra added bonus.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. There's always the "Hide Thread" function
If a little news about Obama pains you so much.
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. On edit - forgive me. I figured it out - it means that
Edited on Wed Oct-10-07 05:09 PM by smalll
amongst all voters, Hillary still has much higher numbers of people finding her actually "unfavorable" than Obama or Edwards.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. From the OP
But among all Americans, Clinton (51%), Obama (54%), and Edwards (48%) have similar favorable ratings, with Clinton's negatives much higher -- at 44%. This leaves her, in Gallup's calculations, as just +7 in the ratings, while "Obama has a +27 net favorable rating and Edwards +17 among the general public."


I have no problem being corrected if that means something other than Obama has a 20 point net favorability rating over Clinton among the general public.
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Yes, you are correct. I just didn't know what it meant - rinsd's link to the full poll clarifies -
Edited on Wed Oct-10-07 05:25 PM by smalll
Amongst all Americans, 51% find Hillary favorable, 44% find her unfavorable, and only 5% have no opinion. Obama's numbers are 54%f, 27%unf, 19%dk. Edwards is 48%f, 31%unf, 21%dk.

I would contend that Hillary still has high unfavorables amongst much of the general public (and few "no opinions") because of all her old baggage and image. But she's trending up - thanks to the New Hillary factor (the more people see of her, the more they like her now.)

I would also contend that Obama's and Edwards' unfavorables are still small and their "don't know/no opinion"s are so high because most of America, certainly most Independents who aren't focusing on primaries, don't yet know about Obama's middle name issue or about all of Edwards's foibles either.

Mr. and Mrs. America haven't yet seen, for example, those aerial pics of John Edwards' house, which can be so affecting to non-Edwards people (and so irritating to Edwardsians) here on DU. Can anyone doubt that those photos will play a key role in the Repubs ad campaign if somehow John got the nomination?

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. I agree the more people get to see her and realize
she's not the devil incarnate, as drawn by the right wing in the 90s, the more people are liking her. I think Edwards would be ripped to shreds in the GE far faster than Hillary would be. It's hard to say how things like Obama's middle name will play. The country now has more familiarity with Middle Eastern people, in general, than previously and a name may not be taken so seriously.
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Fair comment, I generally agree -
I will say this for Obama - his middle name is about the only major Bad Thing about him that non-political types haven't heard of yet. Edwards has a lot more of them.

I also appreciate your reasonableness about Hillary. I'd bet almost anything that within a a few months (3 or 4) you'll be happy and willing to go along with the good General's choice! ;)
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Heh - well, I hated to let him down
But he knows we all gotta do what we gotta do. That's one of the reasons he's still the man as far as I'm concerned.
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frazzled Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
14. Maybe you don't have to "like" someone to think they might make a good president?
I'm being honest in asking this question about what 'favorables' and 'unfavorables' really mean to voters.

Someone could have high favorables and low unfavorables, and it might just mean "nice guy/gal, but I don't think he/she'd be the best president at this moment."

Someone could have modestly low unfavorables, but it might just mean "so what, I don't really care about this person enough to feel strongly."

Someone could have high unfavorables, but a voter might think: "she/he is a real piece of work, but they'd probably do a crackup job in office."

Favorables and unfavorables, to my understanding, are about people's perceptions of personalities ... not positions or necessarily competence. (Note that presidential approval ratings are "job approval"; presidential favorability ratings are about personal qualities).

I'm not so sure these kinds of statistics are all that helpful. Sure, a candidate wants to have as high of favorables and as low of unfavorables as possible (especially because it's something to bandy about when you don't have anything else to show during the campaign) ... but I'm not sure that they translate directly into voting.

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. I wouldn't say it translates into voting, either
Just a little piece of things. I think almost any of our candidates would make good presidents.

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. I Think There Is A Correlation Between Favorability And Voting
I don't think it's a perfect correlation though...
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #23
34. It certainly seems like it.
How else (outside of the SCOTUS and vote suppression, of course) do we explain Bush over Gore, then Bush over Kerry?

It certainly wasn't about qualifications. It was about having a beer with the guy.
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illinoisprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
16. because the democrats are gullible about Hillary and believe her pandering.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. Ah, the Obama strategy...insult the intelligence of Democratic voters...
Sounds like a winner to me!!!

:rofl:
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
24. This part of Gallup's analysis was omitted:

"Even though Obama and Edwards have much more positive than negative ratings now, if either is the Democratic nominee he would likely see his ratings decline substantially by November 2008. But the usual campaign dynamic may not apply to Clinton, who is already nearly universally known and has been seen through a partisan lens for a long time. As a result, her favorable ratings may not change much over the course of the campaign. In fact, her current scores are similar to what the presidential nominees' scores will likely be next November."

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28957
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. Agreed. Their "undecideds" are significantly higher than hers at the moment.
It would be interesting to see what percentage of the undecideds are Republicans.
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
30. This doesn't bother me, although I am at this point for Edwards, but
I will take my chances with Obama if he can take it away from hillary...and just hope Obama does a good job running this country.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
33. Amazing Obama......!
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-10-07 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
37. Vewy intewesting.
thanks for posting :)
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