Republicans Running Uphill

The Wall Street Journal

Republicans Running Uphill
With More House Seats to Defend, Funding Looms Large
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
October 19, 2007; Page A6

WASHINGTON -- The bad news keeps getting worse for the Republicans. They have twice as many seats to defend as Democrats next year in the narrowly divided Senate. The Democratic presidential candidates are raising twice as much money as the Republicans. And now it looks like the party will even have trouble holding its ground in the House, which had been considered its best shot. A dozen House Republicans have announced they won't stand for re-election next year, a wave of retirements that could grow and leave the party with fewer seats next year and perhaps well beyond. Even veterans in safe Republican seats are heading for the exits, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert. This summer he announced he would be leaving Congress at the end of this term, but yesterday aides said he would step down late this year or early next year.

The Republican congressional campaign committee is in debt, while the Democrats' committee said Wednesday it has raised $28 million. "Right now we're in a race with ankle weights," Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, the committee's chairman, said this week. Without campaign funds to spread around, the party is having trouble recruiting candidates. Meanwhile, the Iraq war has energized the liberal Democratic base and angered independents, who deserted the Republican Party in 2006 and seem unlikely to return.

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But others see bad news for the Republicans. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report predicts an additional 16 Republicans could retire before the election. Typically, about 30 congressmen resign each election cycle. A key difference this year is that only two Democrats have announced they are leaving so far, both to run for the Senate. "The worse things get, the more discouraged members are, the more likely they are to look for something else to do, and the worse things get," said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin.

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The split between the party's fiscal conservatives and the social conservatives who have long been the party's activist core compounds its problems. "There aren't enough letters in the alphabet to spell out how many ways conservatives are angry with the Republican party," said Mr. Shirley, the Republican strategist, who names spending, the Iraq war, and warrantless wiretaps among them. The bruising immigration battle only deepened the split while driving away Hispanics.

Republicans pin their remaining 2008 hopes on voter unhappiness with Congress and a possible backlash against Sen. Hillary Clinton, if she is the Democratic presidential candidate. Democrats "ran as agents of change and nothing changed," said Mr. Cole, the Republican congressional campaign committee chairman. But in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in September, 47% of registered voters said they preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress to 35% who said they preferred Republican control. Mrs. Clinton's unpopularity with conservatives would energize Republican voters, which could tip some close House races to the Republicans. But Rudy Giuliani, if he is the Republican candidate, could cause them to stay home because of their opposition to his moderate social stance.

The Republicans' problems may be deeper than just one or two election cycles. Women, who vote in larger numbers than men, are increasingly trending Democratic. Hispanics and young people, though less likely to vote than older people and whites, are too. In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 42% of registered voters identified themselves as Democratic-leaning compared to 34% who said they were Republican leaning. Five years ago, there was only a one-point gap.


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