Dark Horses Run Hard in Iowa

The Wall Street Journal

Dark Horses Run Hard in Iowa
Kingmaker Past Draws White House Hopefuls In Need of Momentum
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER
October 23, 2007; Page A5

Des Moines, Iowa

(snip)

Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden would appear to be tilting at windmills in his presidential bid. His 3% support in national polls and $1.9 million campaign fund make him a long shot. But Mr. Biden, who has served in Congress for 35 years, says he has no intention of bailing out. Instead, he insists he still has a shot if he can finish in the top tier of Iowa, where party caucus rules, relatively low campaign costs, a large number of undecided voters and a kingmaker tradition are keeping him and other dark horses in the race until the New Year. Iowa is likely to set its Democratic caucus for Jan. 3. The Republican caucus there has already been set for that date.

(snip)

Iowa, though relatively small and homogenous, retains its outsized influence because it is first to choose, a position that its leaders protect. It also has gained a reputation as a political equalizer, where candidates are expected to pound the pavement knocking on doors, sip coffee at small living-room events and mix it up with an electorate that prides itself on its mastery of the political zeitgeist. These traits make Iowa compelling for long shots. Banking on Iowa is a hallowed formula in presidential politics since George McGovern took second place there in 1972, helping propel him to the nomination. In 1976, Jimmy Carter used an Iowa win to fire his ascendancy to the White House. And, as Mr. Biden is fond of noting, John Kerry was polling 5% of Iowa voters a year before the caucus; he rose from the back of the pack, finished first and later became the party nominee.

But it hasn't always been so. George H.W. Bush, father of the current president, upset Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980 but went on to lose the nomination. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt won the Democratic caucus in 1988 and lost the nomination. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin repeated the pattern in 1992. A compressed 2008 nominating schedule has some campaigns thinking they may be able to skip Iowa and still maintain the momentum needed to capture their party's nod. That is because this time around, big-delegate states such as Florida and California come earlier on the political calendar. On Feb. 5, some 20 states will vote at once; by the next day, it seems almost certain that both parties will have settled on a candidate to top their tickets.

(snip)

But conventional wisdom persists, and most candidates are spending considerable time in Iowa, hoping for a good showing to boost their standing. Recent polls say more than half of probable caucus-goers appear undecided... Mr. Biden, unlike his better-heeled rivals, is shepherding his money, keeping his campaign headquarters in a strip mall outside Des Moines while others operate in more upscale digs downtown. His sister and two nieces oversee operations there, providing a helping hand on the cheap. He eschews charter travel, flying commercial air from Washington. His most celebrated campaign prop is the so-called "corn wall," a homemade tote board that measures his "ears of experience" and that of rivals, using corncobs glued to a massive plywood board.

Though scrimping on the trappings, Mr. Biden has valuable political counsel in the form of Bill Romjue, his Iowa director. Mr. Romjue's claim to fame was engineering a surprise win in 1976 for Jimmy Carter, then a little-known former Southern governor. "We're running a rural-based campaign here," Mr. Romjue said of the Biden organization. "I draw up the maps with the number of delegates in each county and Biden goes out to meet them." Two of the strengths Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama project in other parts of the country -- massive amounts of cash and overwhelming star power -- are diminished attributes in Iowa. Here, caucus-goers hew to traditional politicking: They like to meet candidates personally and be wooed by them. Arena venues and large entourages makes it hard for them to connect.

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Hang in there...Biden's the most qualified and he seems the most presidential.

and was going to post it. History shows that nothing is inevitable at this point in the race. Too bad the media seems to forget this every four years.

am of Joe. It's really exciting to really believe in someone who has abysmal numbers, then watch those numbers grow, see more and more people being drawn to him. It seems more "real" politics to me than the enormous multi-million dollar shindigs those with the bucks are throwing.

Especially at this time in our country. Having feeling alienated by our president, I want someone who feels more accessible than the super stars. I feel that way with Joe.

That really sums it up for me. I can't remember feeling this way before.

and was really inclined to vote for Biden then, before he quit.

If he is still viable by the time my MN caucus night comes around - I may vote for him again.

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I'm sending a few more dollars.:yourock: :patriot:

In a big money state, candidates like Biden and Richardson and Dodd would have absolutely no chance to move up. It's all about money already, disgracefully so, but it would be entirely hopeless if the small state first schedule went away.

Obama is spot on with small donations from many people. He just is not experienced enough. Biden:patriot: is by far a More capible candiate.

It is the only way to level the playing field in an era of big money and media hype.