Some great polling news for Edwards in Iowa.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071007/NEWS/71005053/-1/iowapoll07



This is a poll showing how people who are not already voting for the given candidate feel about them.

Of all candidates in Iowa, Edwards is the one with the lowest absolute disfavorables among those not voting for him--that is, the candidate that fewest people have ruled out switching to. He's also the candidate that stands to gain the most from the time left in the race; over half of Iowa voters would consider switching to him if he sells himself better. And he's the candidate, along with Obama, with the highest number of voters wavering over him, with 17% on the cusp of throwing their support to him.

This also should tell his campaign that despite what some pundits are saying, he should not go negative against Clinton. She already has the highest unfavorables of the Big Three, and while there's a considerable chunk looking for more information about her, gaining those 51% should be more important to him than preventing her from expanding her lead while shrinking his own support base. He should go as positive as possible, and really drive home his views on healthcare, unions, and farms/ethanol. He's been focusing on Iraq a bit too much, in my opinion; especially given his co-sponsorship of the IWR, he's not likely to convince people his anti-war cred is better than Hillary's or Obama's. Populist domestic issues should be his game, and he's got a real chance to pull off an upset if he plays that game right.

Other notes:

1. It isn't a lack of exposure that's killing Gravel and Kucinich. People simply don't like what they see. Same with Ron Paul, thank God.

2. Biden's running a dark-horse candidacy in hopes he'll manage to swing upwards and place a respectable close fourth. Given his relatively low 28% "might consider if knew more," and his 60% ruled-out figure, I find that unlikely.

3. Huckabee's dangerous as hell, guys. Those numbers and that preacher-man shtick could combine for a real insurgent run. I'd start treating him as a real candidate along the lines of Romney or Giuliani soon, if you aren't already.

4. In absolute numbers, the Iowa Poll shows Edwards 6 points behind Clinton as of this writing. If I were handicapping Iowa, I wouldn't favor either of them. Clinton's got more momentum right now, but at this moment the environment favors an Edwards push.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll07

I'm surprised to see such high "ruled out" numbers for Dodd, Biden, and Richardson.

I'm actually surprised in the opposite direction on Richardson. His rule out number is significantly lower than Dodd's and Biden's and is pretty close to Hillary's.

I think you misinterpreted the poll. Or perhaps I don't understand it.

And win in all sections of the country.

Wish it were Dennis, but being pragmatic here.

Who might vote for Edwards if they "knew more" about him? My God, the man has practically lived in Iowa, campaigning non-stop...what does it take for them to get to know him? Does he need to have dinner with each of these people?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

I think this number is a reflection of people wondering why they're not meeting him on their TV the way they're meeting Clinton and Obama every night.

a credit to his strategy.

And from everything I have read, he WILL be spending on media buys in Iowa and NH, just in time for the vote and/or caucuses.

It is interesting to watch this develop.

If message and candidate out plays and out wins big money, this can have a very positive affect on future races.

of voter preferences.

I gave it more attention than I might a straight-up this-one-or-that-one poll.

Agree on Huckabee -- he may come on real strong real fast in Iowa, especially with Sam Brownback out of the race (I'm hunching that many Brownback supporters might naturally gravitate toward Huckabee).

Thompson is registering as an option for the Pukes but not impressively. I'm not thinking he's making much of an impact, at least not enough to discourage other Republicans' campaigns there.

Edwards and Obama seem to fare pretty well in this survey. It's interesting that while the hard numbers give Clinton the lead the polling is very volatile and hints at several new narratives still taking form in Iowa.

Yogi was dead right about it not bein' over til' it's over.

And it ain't nowhere near bein' over.

I've always predicted him to be the GOP dark horse. Though I'm betting it will be a Romney/Huckabee ticket.

Good news for Edwards too!

Edwards ranks with Thompson... thats not good news.

He's been uninspiring in the debates, and he's been downright lazy in his campaigning. He could really clean up in Iowa, but first he'd have to get off his couch.

I got nervous when he announced. (Reagan effect) then keeping an eye on him showed just how much of a meat head he really is "The soviet Union is of great concern" 12 years after its collapse... sad the rethugs wont pay attention to that sort of thing as we do.

withdraw?

If so, will they endorse?

If so, who will they endorse?

I suspect that the 5th place candidate will withdraw and endorse, and I suspect that either would likely endorse Hillary. I suspect that Iowa's 4th place candidate, whether it's Biden or Richardson, will withdraw after New Hampshire.

gap, then Biden and Richardson fighting for 4th, and then a gap, and then Kucinich, and then Dodd (if he doesn't drop out before then), and then Gravel.

What a sad commentary on politics in the USA.

Hillary. just to sink us in the GE.

My fears tell me it's going to be Hillary vs. Ghouliani but I have this little tickle from time to time that tells me it will be Edwards vs. Romney.

to switch to their second choice.

(Just ask Edwards about the agreement he and Kucinich made right before the 2004 caucuses) :hi:

Chances are there are going to be some precincts where hillary or obama are not viable, so it could never hurt to be someone's second or third choice.