Since 1975, only twice has the candidate atop the Democratic field in the national Gallup Polls at this point in the campaign cycle gone on to win the nomination. The exceptions were Al Gore in 1999 and Walter Mondale (47 percent in the November 1983 Gallup Poll), who almost lost the nomination to Gary Hart, who was literally an asterisk in the same survey. And in the November 1991 Gallup Poll, a small-state governor named Bill Clinton was running sixth (yes, sixth) in the Democratic horse race, behind Mario Cuomo and such implausible presidential choices as Jerry Brown and Doug Wilder.
4. Oh my, no! this is a totally different one from any before.
There is many new technologies and information routes from even 2000. And we have so many more independents now. I think it will be very hard to know what is really going on. The country is in a mood and they are taking their time. 70% have not even made their minds up.
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