Is it possible for Biden to win Iowa?

What kind of ground game does he have going on there?

Activity is way up; support is growing; some key endorsements are notched.

His chance at winning in Iowa is real.

I was at an event held for him at a friend's house. He's very engaging in person, still a bit long winded, but self aware and funny about it. I think he's grown on the campaign trail. Really, my only worry about him is how gaffe prone he may or may not be. What I like about him is that he's actually the most genuine of ALL of them. There's a real authenticity there.

your description seems to be a bullseye.

Agree with you on the authenticity. It's hard-wired into him and it ain't comin' out.

valuable to say and Biden does. So far, all of his speeches and debates are concise and filled with ideas, wisdom, honesty and so far falls heavily into the trustworthy category. The other candidates can ramble and stumble a bit and I end up thinking, but what did they mean. Biden gets so little time to get his ideas out there he ends up being very concise.

Edit: I have no idea how well he is relating to the people in Iowa. That is why it is helpful to hear from those living there. What do they think of him? Have they had a chance to see him in person? It must be super to be able to hear and see all the candidates before making a choice.

to Senator Clinton.

Maybe Miss Congeniality?

I am not in a position to pick primary winners.

McCarthy, Kennedy in '8
McGovern in '72
Carter in '76
Kennedy in '80
Hart, Jackson in '84
Gephardt, Gore in '88
Brown in '92
Clinton in '96
Gore in '00
Dean in '04

4 out of 9 races I chose candidates in the early contests who became our party's nominees.
2 out of 9 of those I chose early on actually won in the general election.

So, rucky, can I stand in that line behind you?

He can win.

I also think Obama and Clinton could win.

I don't think any of the rest of them can.

Some are worried that neither Clinton or Obama can pull off the general election, and they might see him as a safer bet. (He's not my choice either.)

because of the caucus system. I've seen it before and I'm sure it won't be the last time Iowa surprises people. My folks on the ground there say Biden is surging. Still a threway between Edwards, Obama, and Hillary though.

Biden's problem is that he has what may be the largest gender gap in political history. (The last I saw, 8:1 male/female) So when women peel off Obama, Biden needs to get them. Hard to see how... so he would want female Obama support to go to Edwards because Obama is too conservative (as he has to be to chase Clinton). Edwards should have some potential for women to switch to him... he's 2:1 male, which is kind of counter-intuitive.

Fortunately for Biden, he would be acceptable to a lot of Clinton supporters.

Obama has too much of the progressive vote, and Edwards not as much as he should.

So for Biden to win, Clinton would have to do something so bad people were desperate for an alternative, and Edwards would have to poach some votes from Obama. Hard to imagine Biden cracking 25% in Iowa in any scenario, so he'd need something tightly clustered, like Biden 25%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%, Obama 18%

I'd love to see the race stay tight until some of the states other than IA and NH have a chance to weigh in. It would be great for the voters if there were three or four legitimately possible nominees going into Super Tuesday.

pragmatic choice" statement with a DUer. Poof! She immediate became a Biden supporter and used your phrase in her sig line. You should copyright it. :7



Edit to add thread so you can see how you helped her reconcile her dilemma. Bear in mind when she first posted she had no pic of Biden, no K&E words of wisdom in her sig line - the transformation took place IN THAT THREAD! It was a beautiful thing to see! :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2221495

women - maybe one guy - supporting Biden. So I'm hoping those stats change. And of course, sitting here with my glass half full, I have faith they will!

As a younger woman in my early thirties doing the whole marriage, house, and now possibly the baby thing- I want a President in office that I can trust and is looking out to protect the middle class and my family. I would feel extremely safe knowing Biden was in the White House. I wouldn't be having this unease that I do now.
I know that Biden would take the Presidency seriously and his foreign policy expertise right now in my opinion is probably one of the most important things we need. With Biden in charge my mind would rest a little easier knowing that he's looking out for us- the American people. Biden is genuine. You can't fake that.

now. I hadn't been able to capture the feeling, but you nailed it.

With any of the candidates I wouldn't feel as comfortable as I would with Biden at the helm. And with a couple of them, I think it there would be a definite unease.

After reading this morning about Bhutto encouraging demonstrations, my current unease has graduated into a little knot of fear in my gut.

This whole thing w/ Pakistan has got me unnerved. Just add it to the mess we already have!

personal news?

Kerry at this point in 2003 was a seemingly lost cause.

Biden is really good at retail politics and he connects with people. He also received the first newspaper endorsement in Iowa. Iowans take their politics very seriously and don't pay that much attention to the MSM.

We have some Iowans here at DU. Hopefully they'll share their perspective with you. Everything I've heard (save one) has been very positive.

That being said - I think Biden will be in the top 3 :hi:

And how quickly everyone will forget that he wasn't a serious contender.

Iowa is unpredictable. It's always possible for people to reject consensus about the top three and look further down the list for someone acceptable.

Against Joe Biden? Why so Negative?

that there's ANYTHING good about this lates mess in Pakistan, but everytime something like that happens, Joe seems to have to best reponse! Jow is the ONLY PERSON (not only the only candidate) who has a workable plan for exiting Iraq! Then, during the last debate, when everyone was discussing nukes in Irn, JOE was saying "Don't take your eye off the ball folks! The REAL problem is Pakistan!!!" Then 3 days later, there's a BIG problem in Pakistn! I don't think any of that went unnoticed. I know the media did interview Joe about what to do in Pak. but I wish they would have brought up the fact that HE was the ONLY person who was talking about his concern BEFORE Mushareff shut down the press, the supreme court, and arrested the attorneys and the protestors! That's what we AND his advisors need to promote!

Yes and therefore Biden can win!

I'm just looking at what I believe is most likely. I think the winner will be either Hillary or one of Obama or Edwards -- one or the other of those two will convince a good amount of the others' supporters to jump ship in an effort to overcome Hillary. Say, for example, that Obama supporters convince the Edwards caucusers to jump ship to Obama to overcome Hillary. We'll then see Hillary and Obama in first and second place, with Edwards in third or fourth, with Biden or Richardson mixed in there somewhere.

Biden's numbers going up while Edwards, Richardson going down.

Biden is everyone's #2. If he takes supporters away from Richardson, Dodd and Kucinich, he can break into the top tier.

IMO

or third, it'll be HUGE for his campaign. Remember, he's around 6% in Iowa (I believe), up a couple ticks from a couple months ago. If he finishes with a strong 2nd or 3rd place finish, the media will jump on this like white on rice and Joe will finally get the attention he deserves. More people will take notice around the country, and more donations will start going his way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtGCaqOdIJ4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUC8LeZ1hM4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HcXkLbRIWw


BIDEN/OBAMA '08

I don't see it happening. I think Biden has a good shot to finish third, possibly even second though..which is good enough for me. Biden himself has said fourth in Iowa will keep him in the race. I am convinced Edwards will take Iowa...but all the same, I'm hoping I'm wrong!

Biden doesn't have the saturation in Iowa that the top three do, BUT he's been doing a lot of small gatherings (and I mean A LOT) and "meet and greets" and that plays well to Iowans. It gives caucus goers a chance to get up close and personal with the candidate (unlike the large rallies).I haven't heard of ANYONE who has gone to hear him speak that has come away with a bad impression of him, and news spreads fast in small Iowa communities. So I think he has a lot of momentum here, but Iowans love Edwards. There's just no getting around that, and even though Edward's numbers are falling off a bit, most of his support is solid support and unlikely to realign.

It's going to be an interesting caucus that for sure!

it is cold.

Bone-chilled Democrats will trudge through the fields and farms and streets and cafes to gather for their top picks. There'll be some jumbling and jambling and re-shifting based on viability. Undecideds will ensure an existential vibe so that the networks can't "project" a clear winner. World events may go better or worse, casting this or that candidate in a brighter or darker light.

It's less than two months away and it's going to be a wild one.