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NH POLL: Clinton Lead Shrinks to 10 Points (34 / 24 for Obama)

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:23 AM
Original message
NH POLL: Clinton Lead Shrinks to 10 Points (34 / 24 for Obama)
Edited on Wed Nov-07-07 08:26 AM by jefferson_dem
New Hampshire: Clinton Lead Shrinks to 10 Points
Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Senator Hillary Clinton’s lead in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Primary has fallen to its lowest level of the season.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the state’s Likely Primary Voters shows Clinton leading Senator Barack Obama by ten percentage points, 34% to 24%. Former Senator John Edwards attracts 15% of the vote while New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson earns 8%. No other candidate tops the 3% level of support.

At 34%, Clinton’s current level of support is the lowest measured in any Rasmussen Reports poll this year. Four previous polls in New Hampshire found her consistently in the 37% to 40% range.

This is the first poll of the race conducted since Senator Hillary Clinton’s debate gaffe concerning drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. In the last poll before that debate, Clinton held a sixteen-point advantage over Obama. A month earlier, Clinton was ahead by twenty-three percentage points.

The current poll also shows that Clinton’s favorability ratings have dropped. Among New Hampshire’s Likely Voters, 72% now offer a positive assessment of the frontrunner. That’s down from 81% prior to the debate. Obama is viewed favorably by 82%, Edwards by 76%

<SNIP>

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. A Few Hours Of Peace And Quiet
Edited on Wed Nov-07-07 08:32 AM by MannyGoldstein
Now we'll be spared from HillShill "Resistance is futile!" posts for a few hours until HQ adjusts its talking point.
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CTLawGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:35 AM
Response to Original message
2. it's within striking distance
that's all it needs to be right now.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. We'll await the latest post-debate numbers from Iowa also.
One would suspect (or hope for, at least) a similar trend.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
4. She's there to be had in Iowa and New Hampshire
and South Carolina, for that matter. The coronation has turned into a contest.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Good God from Zion!!!
LOL...if NH dropped like this and she had a sizeable lead there then I'm sure it dropped in Iowa too.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:30 AM
Response to Original message
6. Shit!!! I originally read this as NJ. This is huge for Obama.
I thought he was looking to win Iowa and SC; and just hope for a good showing in New Hampshire.

This is huge; especially if other polls reflect the same thing.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
38. Not just huge for Obama, Edwards and Richardson could still win NH as well.
In the past, third or fourth place candidates have jumped to first in NH.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
7. Heee! Lovin' it!
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
8. Rasmussen sucks...it's a Republican outfit...
Edited on Wed Nov-07-07 09:37 AM by SaveElmer
Why is the MSM trying to shove Obama down our throats? I do not know ONE SINGLE Obama supporter...clearly these polls are waaaay out of whack!!!!

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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Oh...Rasmussen sucks now?
LOL, they're a "Republican outfit" now? Funny how their polls are always posted by the Clintonites whenever she gains. Dare I call it...hypocrisy?
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. He's just parodying earlier comments made when the polls were more favorable to Clinton
by people opposed to her. And he's not wrong.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Oh sarcasm...gotcha
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Guess you don't know satire when you see it...
Now that Hillary appears to have dropped some, all of a sudden polls are wonderful things to those who weren't liking them not too long ago (Jeff Dem excluded)

Just wanted to see if they will recognize now how ridiculous it sounds
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. I never knocked state polls
where they were actually campaigning (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina)...I always had a problem with national polls because I think the logic in the outcome is flawed.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. What many of us also said was that polls the summer before the primary season
didn't mean shit. And they didn't. Less than two months from Iowa, that's not so much the case anymore.
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Clintonista2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
32. Wow.
That went straight over your head, didn't it?
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
17. LOL
I knew you had a sense of humor within those bones.

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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #8
20. Elmer, you know those are beautiful numbers.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. You know I am mocking "Poll Deniers" right ?...nt
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. I do, Elmer.
:)
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
39. You're assuming only Obama is positioned to jump over Hillary.
Good news for Edwards and Richardson as well. Both are very much in it.
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:38 AM
Response to Original message
9. It just doesn't matter
Obama or Hillary will make fine presidents if they get the nod. Both will be electable in the general election, unlike a John Edwards campaign, which would result in a landslide for Republicans.

Let the increased competition bring out the best in either one of them. Too bad Biden or Kucinich couldn't close the gap, too, especially Kucinich who represents Democrats better than anyone.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. It matters a hell of a lot to me, et. al.
Edited on Wed Nov-07-07 09:55 AM by ShortnFiery
With Obama, we (The American People) will score NEW and most likely, YOUNGER people in The Executive Branch than with HRC.

With HRC, we will get "her husband's" old INSIDERS and DLC tired old re-run *dignitaries* and other 90s burn-out politicos from their illustrious DLC machine. :thumbsdown:

Remember all the horrific Bush Co. re-runs? Now, of course the DLCers wouldn't be the total disaster that right wing republicans are but they are STILL card carrying plutocrats and neo-liberals, i.e., free trade and an urge to default to bombing and war.

Because Obama will NOT bring in re-treads (the DLC salty insiders from Bill Clinton's Presidency), WE, THE PEOPLE may just be considered as equal to the mighty mighty corporations when policy is enacted. :shrug:
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. How do you KNOW Obama won't bring in Clinton's people (though I doubted)?
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. No, they won't. The people who surround "The Clintons" travel in different (neo-liberal) circles
than - not only us "peasant classes" - but also those frequented by younger political insiders such as Obama. :shrug:
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
21. Viva Obama! Nuff said!
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
24. Her numbers are still inflated
the Emperor to be wears no clothes

All Image, No Substance

Give us something Real.
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neutron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
25. The attack campaign against Clinton is unprecedented
Obama and Edwards gangs have penetrated the blogs bashing Clinton up one side and down the other.
Smear tactics work. I wonder why we forget that in the national campaigns.
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. welcome to DU my friend
HRC will be the next President. Peace and low stress to you and yours.
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
27. I will get a live free or die tattoo if NH supports anyone else in the
primary...
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. Bookmarked...
You mean you don't have one already? Damn. Why do you hate 'Merca?

Sorry, but I see some ink in your future, my friend. :bounce:
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. God willing
peace and low stress to you and yours.
:)
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Basileus Basileon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
30. Well, glad to see Obama supporters accepting polls as valid again.
81 to 72 favorables? That's a brutal drop.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 12:17 PM
Response to Original message
31. What was that I read..."of the state's Likely Primary Voters"? Oh. Because Hillary supporters
dismissed the national poll (where her lead shrunk from 30% to 19%) as being of all voters. Just wanted to make sure. :D
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
33. So, it shows a 3-6% drop from prior polls. Whats the margin for error? Plus
this (from the OP link) tends to imply she still solid overall:

"Still, while the latest numbers show some movement, it’s important to note that Senator Clinton retains a double digit lead both in New Hampshire and nationally. Also, Clinton’s support is more solid than that of her challengers. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Clinton supporters in New Hampshire say they are certain they will vote for her. Just 43% say the same about Obama while 33% of Edwards’ voters are that certain."
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
34. This is the first time we've seen national polling move.
And move it did. Woo-effin-woo!!!!

K&R
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Not really. Obama briefly closed the gap when the 1st Q fundraising numbers were announced.
But since then up until the week is been virtually all Hillary with her gaining or standing pat.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #37
41. Post-debate polling shows an average 11-point shift in the polls nationally
with Hillary declining and Obama gaining, in various combinations.
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Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
35. Obama could do what Bill Clinton did in NH in 1992...
Win by performing surprisingly well and defying expectations.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
36. Hillary is in serious trouble in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Both states are wide open, and anyone in the top four could win it.

Thank goodness for IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. Both states may still be able to save us from Hillary!!!!
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
40. I just wish it weren't Rasmussen. I would have more confidence in it.
Rasmussen is all over the place. Can't depend on it. Let's wait until we get some other polls that show the same trend before we start celebrating - or getting worried if you support Hillary.
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 04:45 PM
Response to Original message
42. What do you know looks like Edwards just might witn NH also.
Way to go N.H> before you laugh, remember I told the board last week that Iwoa was in a three way tie. Want be a tie when Dennis give over to Edwards.
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