Will Giuliani prevail & win the Pukes' nomination?

No, he will not. I think it's going to be Mittens.

;)

and in strong contention in South Carolina, with Romney beginning to move up on the inside rail.

and it would be sweeter to beat his sorry ass than just about anyone else they could put on the ticket.

polling.

this was being discussed a bit the other day. My big fear now that Brownback is out is Romney/Huckabee. Huck would counter the LDS that the fundies might fear and relieve them enough to allow them to vote for the ticket. Huck is a very likable guy in his interviews and we all know how a regular Joe appeals to the masses. Then there is the good looking factor of Romney. I don't see it but apparently a lot do. These days these qualities seem to matter the most to an awful lot of people, the kind that would vote for a Romney/Huckabee ticket.

I really have no clue but that is where I am right now with the other side.

Edit to add Hey! :hi:

Good analysis. I thought of you a bit when ol' Sam dropped out. I was surprised in a way, because in that GOP straw poll in Iowa he almost beat Huckabee.

But evidently his internal polling told him the well was pretty dry and he's stepped aside. Agree with your concern with Huck on a GOP ticket with Romney -- it might serve to neutralize fundies' misgivings about Mitt the Mormon and make that ticket more difficult to defeat.

Still, I'm hopeful. The Pukes are in disarray. They don't know what's happening and it's only a matter of time before they turn on each other in a pre-New Hampshire feeding frenzy, "like rats in a slumfire," to borrow Hunter Thompson's memorable phrase.

Good to run into you on DU. :hi:

If Huckabee finishes second or better in Iowa, he wins the nomination.

positioned to do just that. I think maybe 2nd to Multiple Choice Mitt. It's still early to say but that would put Rudy at no better than 3rd.

Which would make for an interesting lead-in to New Hampshire a week later.

...is that they absolutely hate all of their top candidates. Multiple Choice Mitt, 9/11 Giuliani, Empty Suit Thompson, Senile McCain, all of them have easily exploited weaknesses in a general election.

This guy would have the advantage of being a religious nutjob that came out of nowhere, which will give him the 20-something percent that still backs Bush.

voters who for various reasons won't support ________ (whichever Democrat is nominated).

The likelihood of the economy or Iraq either one getting suddenly better in the next year is remote, though, at least given current conditions, so the GOP ticket will be laboring in the long shadow of Bush's failures in both Iraq and New Orleans, etc.

We can slam the Republicans on Veterans issues as well, and just never give up until the polls close next November.

Huckabee is dangerous because he could mollify more dissatisfied Republicans than the others, who as you say, are dragging ball-and-chain issues around with them.

Guiliani has wayyyy too many things against him. (Abortion, Gay Rights, Catholic in a fundie world, Kerik, marital situation, and a bunch more.

but his national polling remains strong.

It kinda makes me nervous. He's one of the most appalling human beings we could possibly find to put in the White House.

persistence and drive, but voters will end up liking Rudy better, I predict. Huckabee will serve to keep Mitt from getting any momentum out of Iowa--Mitt would have to win by big double digits, or he'll be pronounced a loser there. Rudy will then run a close second in NH, thus being pronounced the "real" winner, and then he'll carry the mojo to SC, MI and the big states. That's how I see it shaping up. I think Thompson was originally hired by the neocons to stop Mitt and help Rudy, but it's not working, so now Huckabee is being promoted relentlessly to fill the role of taking down the Mittster. He may or may not be rewarded with VP. He's a scary doofus, so I doubt it.

but plausible just the same.

Rudy does have that iron nerve thing going, which is one of his many more appalling characteristics. I'm hoping that he never again sees the larger poll numbers he had last spring and early summer. I hope his numbers keep falling, and he finishes a dismal third in Iowa (likely behind Romney and Huck) and then just can't put it together for NH or SC.

But I admit that your version is persuasive.

The guy really makes me sick.

looks like he's sleepwalking through a campaign, almost like he is just going through the motions and has no intention of actually winning the primary. He took hardly any poll numbers from Rudy. May have taken some from McCain. He did knock Mitt down a little--but Mitt sprang back up, so now Huckabee is needed. I don't know if Fred's wife is in on this--she really seems to think she might be First Lady, sadly. Fred is going to leave the race with an acting or radio gig waiting in the wings, a few million in campaign funds, some Turtle Wax and a supply of Rice-a-Roni.

experience, he certainly doesn't show much skill at speaking in front of an audience. Maybe Fred likes camera set work and not live stage work. It likely wasn't an issue with Reagan because after a certain point Reagan didn't know where he was at all.

Film director: "You're on a film set, Ronnie."
Reagan: "Great."

Campaign manager: "You're on a political stage, Ronnie."
Reagan: "Great."

It was all the same to Reagan. Thompson doesn't seem to be able to manage his own campaign appearances. So it lends credence to your theory. Agree also on Fred's wife. She doesn't appear to be aware that her husband's polling is tanking big time.

got some bad gas and he needs an oil change not to mention his brakes and shocks need replacing.
I like him still though on Law & Order as an actor but I would not ever vote for him as I disagree with him on to many issues

Wish I could change my mind.

But I've been wrong before

Iowa, beginning early this coming week.

I don't have stats at the ready to suggest that a more prevalent profile for Paul would subtract from Rudy's totals from "independent Republicans" or "libertarian Republicans" but if that percentage is even slightly significant, combined with Huckabee's possible surge among the more far-right Republicans who vote in primaries, plus Rudy's own lackluster Iowa effort, it could mean he gets buried alive by midnight January 3rd.

of covering most major media markets statewide. I figured Iowa would be cheaper but I didn't realize it would be THAT much cheaper.

And quite a bit would be riding on it, too.

Can't really know who's going to win. Polls say Giuliani, but the ideologues hate the guy. And they vote in droves without fail. So who knows?

Willard and McCrazy and/or Paul and/or Huckabible.

This will cause him to drop to 3rd (at best) in SC.

With three primaries where he finishes 3rd or worse, he'll fizzle on Super-Duper Tuesday.

I'm saying the Repub nominee odds are 50% Willard, 30% Ghouliani, 15% McCrazy, 5% Huckabible.

I think he'll get the big states on Super Tuesday after losing Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

He's got the nom

His old man was unexceptional. Willard is evidently smarter and shrewder but has a very high creep factor.

And he leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, which augurs ill for Giuliani. Losses in both those two "headline" primary states would weaken Rudy for the big Tuesday cluster to follow.

I'm hoping not, but thinking so...

:hi:

who seems to like to bully and shove to get his way, and he sounds a lot more belligerent than Dubya.

No a good mix for a president after 7-8 years of alienating our allies.

of conceded already in my opinion. Guiliani could do ok in the general. Only hope for him is if he is running against Hillary. I think any other R get's crushed pretty good.