Moved-up Iowa caucuses could hinder youth vote

Source: USA Today

Moved-up Iowa caucuses could hinder youth vote


By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY

DES MOINES — Democrat Barack Obama is generating palpable excitement on Iowa campuses. But he's up against both history and new challenges as he tries to turn that energy into votes in the state's leadoff presidential caucuses.

In 2004, according to the state Democratic Party, only 3.9% of 124,000 Democratic caucus participants were age 18 to 24. And that was for Jan. 19 caucuses. This time they are on Jan. 3, when virtually all Iowa colleges are on winter break.

"It's clearly an untapped resource," Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin says of the youth vote. "Many candidates have believed that their path to victory in Iowa was to vastly expand the universe of caucus participants and bring in new people, particularly young people. It hasn't quite worked out before."

The crestfallen of yesteryear include Bill Bradley in 2000 and Howard Dean in 2004. This time around, says Alec Schierenbeck, 20, a Grinnell College junior who heads Iowa College Democrats, candidates are making "unprecedented efforts" to organize young people. It's easier than ever, he adds, because of "indispensable" social networking websites such as Facebook.

Besides Obama, those in the hunt include Republican Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former North Carolina senator John Edwards, also a Democrat. Several national polls show Clinton with a plurality of younger voters among Democratic candidates; she splits them evenly with Obama in at least one. But most polls measure a group aged 18 to 30, so it's hard to discern student preferences.
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Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-11-11-youth-vote_N.htm

It is a fairly well documented phenomenon that younger voters tend to be more idealistic and more willing to vote for a candidate rather than a party. In the last few years, the Democratic Party has shown a marked antipathy towards both of these tendencies.

I live in Iowa and I didn't connect the dots about the college students
being home (most likely in other states and towns) for the holiday break.

Obviously, this hurts progressives TREMENDOUSLY. College students tend to
be more liberal--and now those votes won't count.

The population of Ames, Iowa is about 55,000. Half of the population is
the Iowa State University students. In Iowa City, Iowa at least 30 percent
of the 63,000 residents are college students. There are many small, liberal
arts colleges in small towns. Those students would have tipped the caucuses
to more progressive candidates.

Now, those students will be gone.

Nice, intentional scheme for ensuring that the progressive voice is significantly
diminished.

Who made this decision?

so they can participate in caucuses if they return early. Of course, students would have to be SUPER motivated to return early, especially if from out of state. I guess in-state students could caucus in their home towns. Colleges like Grinnell, with a highly motivated and liberal student body, are mostly out-of-state.

The real kicker is that colleges and universities close their dorms over vacation--you must be out by a certain time after the last exams are scheduled, and usually can't get back in until the Sunday before classes resume on Monday. So campaigns finding housing for these students will be critical.

All and all, there is a reason why this age group does not vote in greater numbers: they are "itinerant" and the schedule does not favor them.

not to accept money from Florida since THEY changed their primary. At least that is what the woman that answered the phone at Iowa democrats told me.

My head is spinning...