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"Front runners" rarely win the primary.

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inthebrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:13 PM
Original message
"Front runners" rarely win the primary.
After watching this party over the years I don't think I can recall if the declared front runner ever won the Nomination.

Kerry wasn't in 04 and I don't think Clinton was in 92.

If anything those that are declared the front runner never seem to win because people just get tired of them when the voting starts. It always seem that they take the clubbing early on and it's effective.
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Taverner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
1. Depends on when you ask "who's the front runner"
Early on in 02, Kerry was the front runner. Then Biden. Then Dean. Then Kerry again.

In 00 Gore was always the front runner

True, Carter pulled a rabbit out of his hat - and to be honest I'm not sure how that happened.
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inthebrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. That was after the primaries began in 04
leading up it was Dean that everyone claimed would walk away with it. Leading up to Iowa Kerry wasn't even on anyones lips. I think Dean finished a distant third in that one.

92 Clinton was occupying that 3rd and 4th spot before primary season began.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Kerry was the perceived frontrunner in summer 2003.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. You forgot Poland.
I mean Lieberman.
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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:16 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yes however, incumbents ususally do...
And I don't know if it can be said that Hillary Clinton has(if that is who you are inferring), can be considered as having the same amount of power and influence as an incumbent.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
3. It' s either going to be Rudy or Romney on the R side, and I would be
very surprised if Hillary is not our nominee, despite her off weeks. Everybody likes to imagine interesting scenarios, dark horses, big upsets--but sometimes the way things appear actually end up being the way things are.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
5. Its about half and half in terms of history.
Examples of the Dem frontrunner winning since primary system came into being.

Carter in 80.

Mondale in 84.

Gore in 00.


None frontrunner winners include

Carter in 76.

Dukakis in 88

Clinton in 92.

Tweener:

Kerry in '04 (Kerry was the perceived frontrunner before Dean. No one really believed in Joementum)

I'll call this one a tweener since Kerry was an early frontrunner who was eclipses then regained his status.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. 88 Is An Exception
Edited on Tue Nov-13-07 02:25 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
To have the front runner (Hart) drop out of the race because of a sex scandal is unprecedented... I hate counterfactual history but I believe a scandal free Gary Hart could have beat Bush Pere...



-edited to remove the asterisk...Papa Bush won his election fair and square though he did won a dirty campaign...
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. 88 was indeed a special case.
Though one could argue about Tsongas's heath problems as a factor in 92 as well.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. But Carter in 80 and Gore in 00...
Carter was the sitting president, and Gore was the anointed heir of the (popular) sitting president. You may as well throw Clinton in 96 in there while you're at it....
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Clinton was unopposed in the primary. Carter and Gore were not.
Edited on Tue Nov-13-07 03:00 PM by rinsd
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
8. I remember Kerry being the frontrunner early-on
Dean came in and turned things upside down for a while, but he was quickly put back in his place.
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Basileus Basileon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kerry was the frontrunner through much of the '04 campaign season.
Edited on Tue Nov-13-07 02:26 PM by Basileus Basileon
People switched over to Dean's insurgent campaign, then jumped ship once he showed he wasn't major-league ready.

Gore was in '00. Bush was in '00. :shrug:
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
12. You forgot about 2000
Gore was the frontrunner, and he won the nomination.
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inthebrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Wasn't counting incumbents
Those are a given.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-13-07 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Clinton was the incumbent, not Gore
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