American Research Group -Clinton-46% Obama 21% Edwards 11%

DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:17 PM
Original message

American Research Group -Clinton-46% Obama 21% Edwards 11%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

I have been following their polls since Gore-Bush*... They seem to be a bit of an outlier...

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asdjrocky

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:19 PM
Response to Original message

1. This is a national poll right?

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DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Correct

DSB

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asdjrocky

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. Then it means nothing.

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Josiah1982

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. maybe "it means nothing" because you don't agree with it?

could that be it?:shrug:

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DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. Thank You And Welcome To DU

Who's that on your avatar?

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Josiah1982

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #10

12. thanx for the welcome

:hi:

that's a Warhol image of Jackie "O" Bouvier, Kennedy, Onassis.

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DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #12

14. That's What I Thought

I was in Century City back in 01...Almost made it to Beverly Hills... My girlfriend lives in Koreatown and works for real estate management company with an office above the Kodak Theatre...

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emilyg

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Wed Nov-14-07 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #7

13. Welcome to DU.

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Josiah1982

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Thu Nov-15-07 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. Hi emilyg. Thanx for the welcome.

:hi:

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DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. They Are Drawn From The Same Universe Of Voters As Those In State Polls

The state polls are polling Iowans and South Carolinians and so forth... It's not as if the national polls are interviewing Spaniards or Norwegians..

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Phunktified

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:20 PM
Response to Original message

3. The numbers have barely changed since early october

Their poll prior to this one, taken earlier last month had almost the exact same numbers. Where is this supposed Obama boomlet?

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rinsd

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:21 PM
Response to Original message

4. Handy chart

National Primary

Democrats 	Mar 	Apr 	May 	Jun 	Jul 	Aug 	Sep 	Oct 	Nov
Biden 	         1% 	2% 	3% 	3% 	2% 	4% 	5% 	5% 	4%
Clinton 	34% 	36% 	39% 	39% 	38% 	36% 	39% 	45% 	46%
Dodd 	         1% 	1% 	2% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Edwards 	15% 	19% 	19% 	13% 	16% 	16% 	15% 	13% 	11%
Gravel         	- 	- 	- 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	- 	-
Kucinich 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Obama 	        31% 	24% 	22% 	19% 	25% 	21% 	21% 	20% 	21%
Richardson 	2% 	2% 	2% 	5% 	3% 	7% 	5% 	3% 	4%
Undecided 	14% 	14% 	11% 	16% 	12% 	12% 	12% 	12% 	12%

Question wording:
If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary/caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

The following results are based on nationwide telephone samples of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters (those saying they will definitely vote in a primary or participate in a caucus in 2008) conducted November 9-12, 2007. The theoretical margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.

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DemocratSinceBirth

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. It's A Bit Of An Oulier But Not By Much

DSB

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rinsd

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #5

8. Possibly. Their Hillary number seems right but the Edwards & Obama numbers are slightly lower.

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Ytzak

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Wed Nov-14-07 01:44 PM
Response to Original message

11. The Polls won't matter until after Iowa and New Hampshire

Edited on Wed Nov-14-07 01:45 PM by Ytzak

If Hillary takes both of those, is suspect she will likely run the table. People will perceive she is the winner and vote accordingly.

Should another of the candidates take one or both of these states, the entire race will change; like it did in 2004.

The following information from the poll puts things in perspective:

The following results are based on nationwide telephone samples of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters (those saying they will definitely vote in a primary or participate in a caucus in 2008) conducted November 9-12, 2007. The theoretical margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.

Just 12 people in each state, on average, determined the outcome of the poll. Was it scientific, yes. Perhaps I am guilty of magical thinking here, but I would rather that the election of the President of 300 million people was not determined by how 600 people nation wide voted in a poll. I will wait until February 5.

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