Number of NH Independents who say they'll vote in Dem primary dropping; McCain, Obama vie for votes

Boston Globe: N.H. poll: GOP primary stirring independents
By Michael Kranish and James W. Pindell
Globe Staff and Globe Correspondent / November 14, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire's huge bloc of independent voters, who can vote in either party's presidential primary and had been expected to opt overwhelmingly for the 2008 Democratic contest, are taking a new look at candidates on the Republican side, according to a Boston Globe poll by the University of New Hampshire.

Independents are the state's largest and potentially most crucial voting group, accounting for 44 percent of the electorate. Their support has been crucial to past winners of the New Hampshire primary, including Republican John McCain in 2000. This year, with competitive races on both sides, independents had been expected to vote heavily in the Democratic primary, with 72 percent in a UNH poll as recently as June saying they would take a Democratic ballot. In the Globe poll, released Sunday, 55 percent said they would take a Democratic ballot.

The news that more independents are planning to vote Republican is most welcome to McCain, the Arizona senator who has said winning over independents is "vital" to his success. In 2000, he won overwhelmingly among independents, drawing votes away from Democrat Bill Bradley. This time, analysts said, McCain seems to be competing for independent voters with Democrat Barack Obama....

The decrease in the percentage of independents who expect to vote in the Democratic primary appears to be the result of at least four factors, according to analysts: Some independents may have concluded that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic primary and would prefer to vote in the tighter Republican contest; some independents have shown strong interest in the antiwar candidacy of Representative Ron Paul, a Republican; McCain has ticked up in the UNH polls among independent voters; and Obama has not drawn as much independent support as some analysts had expected....

***

Mary Rauh, who was the state cochairwoman for Bradley in 2000, said the Bradley campaign learned the importance of the independent vote the hard way. The former New Jersey senator narrowly lost to then-Vice President Al Gore partly because so many independents took a Republican ballot and voted for McCain. Today she is cochairwoman of the Obama campaign....Obama has learned from Bradley's experience, she said. "From day one, this campaign has made independents an important focus," she said....But so far, Obama has exactly the same level of support - 21 percent - from Democrats as he does from independents. In order to beat Clinton, Obama needs to pick up far more independent support, analysts said....

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/11/14/nh_poll_gop_primary_stirring_independents/

have no idea what a disgusting neocon sellout he is. They don't notice the "maverick" label is gone and the Straight-Talk Express is in the chop shop.

This is kind of nerve-wracking :scared:

Primary than I am about it being first in the nation. New Hampshire is a conservative state. No wonder the party has been drifting right!

They've gone blue in the last 2 elections. They have a Dem governor, their state legislature has a Dem majority, and they replaced their two rethug congress-critters with Dems in the 2006 election.

Only independents, or 'undeclared' as theyre called here, can vote in either primary. Registered R's and D's can only vote in their own.

DSB

With all the Libertarians that have relocated to NH (because of their "Free State Project"), I wouldn't be suprised to see a lot of them go for Ron Paul. And I agree with you that Paul is batshit crazy.

without a doubt. They aren't going to support McCain.

I have friends in NH and the thinking is that Independents will vote in the Repug primary for a candidate who isn't Ghouliani or Romney to try to derail the GOP front runners.

According to my friends, who are registered Independents, Independents still plan on voting Democrat in the general election.

and would prefer to vote in the tighter Republican contest;". I've heard this before... both from people I know as well as in local papers. Though we could see that change if the Dem race tightens.

Thats why NH polls really dont mean anything at this point.

and I quote:

Yeah, the clowns around here love jerking the chains of the pollsters -- wait and see what really happens election day.

:rofl: