Analysis: Nomination races still in flux

Analysis: Nomination races still in flux

By JIM KUHNHENN
Associated Press Writer


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Call it a failure to gel.

Iowa and New Hampshire, where presidential politics at this early point may matter more than in the nation as a whole, are in a state of flux just seven weeks before the first voting is to begin.

Voters who have managed to pick candidates in these two leadoff states are split among the top contenders in both parties, and more than half in both states say they have not made up their minds. For the leading candidates who have been campaigning for nearly a year, this is where they are after all their efforts:

- For Democrats, a three-way virtual tie in Iowa among Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

- For Republicans, a contest between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani with looming threats from Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire.

That's the political freeze-frame depicted in new CBS/New York Times polls conducted in the two states. The results suggest Iowa could be a determining contest for Democrats and New Hampshire could be pivotal for Republicans.

While national polls show Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective parties, the ground game now is in two states with a combined population of 4.3 million people.

The unsettled nature of the race is not unusual by presidential political standards. Iowa, which makes its selections through caucuses, is notoriously difficult to poll because only a fraction of the voting population participates in the precinct meetings. New Hampshire voters are known for making up their minds only in the days before their primary.

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