ARG: Huckabee And Romney In Dead Heat In Iowa
by Todd Beeton, Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 02:38:58 PM EST
The new ARG Iowa caucus poll of likely Republican caucus goers (600 LVs, 11/10-14, MOE 4%) is worth noting because it's the first poll to show Mike Huckabee essentially tied for the lead with Mitt Romney.
Candidate Nov. (Oct.) RCP 4-poll Ave.
Romney 26 (27) 28.5
Huckabee 24 (19) 19.8
Giuliani 11 (16) 12.3
Thompson 11 (8)) 10.3
McCain 10 (14) 7.3
Paul 3 (1) 4
It will take a few more polls to confirm whether Huckabee's truly gone from merely surging to actually tied for the lead but the way he's been moving (single digits in September, the teens in October, the 20s in November) he's certainly on track not only to catch Romney but to pass him. Real Clear Politics has some handy charts, including Romney's and Huckabee's relative InTrade prediction market trends. In the past two weeks, Huckabee has gone from 15% chance to win the caucus to 40% to win while Romney has gone from 68% to win down to 54% today.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/15/134229/23