Hillary leads the pack among young voters...

Youth Polling Update

by Mike Connery, Sat Nov 17, 2007 at 07:39:48 AM EST

...Despite the media narrative and potentially impressive ground game of the Obama campaign, Hillary continues to lead the pack among young voters.

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On the hypothetical Presidential match-ups, Democrats continue to dominate for the most part. What was interesting is that Clinton routinely wins by larger margins among 18-29 year olds against all Republican opponents, and both Barack Obama and John Edwards actually lose among young voters when pitted against Giuliani, who has long been the Republican favorite among young voters in these polls.

Within the Democratic Primary, the polling confirms trends I've written about extensively. Data culled from PEW shows Clinton leading Obama and Edwards nationally among 18-29 year olds 42 - 32 - 6%.

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New Hampshire

Most young voters in New Hampshire will be voting in the Democratic Primary (45 - 32%; 24% not sure), and they are choosing Clinton by what I eyeball at about 45 - 20 - 10% (RtV provides graphs, not hard numbers within the polling report.).

Iowa

In Iowa, Hillary is dominating among 18-29 year olds (Rasmussen), with 40% of their vote compared to about 23% for Obama. Interestingly, Obama walks away with the Generation X vote, beating Hillary by 33% - to about 24%, and when CBS/NYTimes looked at Iowa, Obama won the under 45 vote.

South Carolina

Rock the Vote is also providing our first look at South Carolina for young voters, and it's neck and neck for Clinton and Obama, with Hillary holding a slight edge of about 41% - 39%.

But young cell-only users and landline users do not differ widely in their political attitudes and partisan affiliation. It is true that the cell-only young respondents are more likely to approve of Bush's performance in office than are under-30 landline respondents (35% vs. 22%). On most other issues, however, they are more liberal and Democratic than their landline counterparts, though most of the differences do not achieve statistical significance. The modest nature of all of these differences suggests that young people – whether cell-only or not – are more similar than different politically.