Who (other than The Big Three) will finish in the top three in Iowa?

What do you think Debi? Being of the corn eaters.

International too, perhaps.
Wait for January, and see the only "poll" that really says what Iowans think.

not asking people to cast a ballot or caucus.

Try to lighten up, none of this is written in stone.

And we agree.

Sure, if there were such a thing as a DU primary we could count this poll for something but only a handful of Iowans are on this board. However, maybe I should go post it over in the Iowa Forum :7 ...

Except Gravel and DK.

He impressed a lot of people in the Nevada debate. But that could change based on his performance in the Iowa debate, which is... when, again?

of support Biden's received has come as a result of his debate performances. He seems to do exceptionally well in that arena. I'm hopeful and optimistic that will continue.

EDIT: Wiki has the schedule and info -- here's the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_presidential_debates%2C_2008

I've watched all but one of the debates so far, and he's far and away the most comfortable in that environment. Hillary and Dodd have generally done well (well, when Dodd was given a chance to speak, that is), Obama and Edwards have been variable, and I think that hurts them, even though they both have really good ideas. But the only people really looking at their ideas are the activists and poli-junkies, and those people are also watching the debates, so I think the debates matter more than less engaged people think.

thing to read about their records and platforms (and frankly, Zzzzzz) but when you get to see them in action you get a SENSE of the person, and I think that's an important element that shouldn't be discounted.

I think Biden and Dodd do the best, and I'm guessing a large part of that is due to their years of experience on the Senate floor.

have more visibility, ergo more support. I really think one of them will make a surprising showing, though.

I swear he is looking at me!

Just noticed your sig line - how funny.

Edwards in December of 2003?

and Gephardt have leaning their way in December 2003? Nothing like 85%. Not even half that. There was more room for Edwards to grow in 2004, but there isn't a comparable amount of room for growth in Iowa right now. Likewise, the support of all the "non-viable" candidates added together with the officially "undecided" in Iowa was quite substantial in 2004, but if you add up all the support of Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel, and undecided now there is less substantially less room to grow.

I'm not inclined to tell YOU how things look on the ground in Iowa, but things look quite different on paper. On paper, there isn't the same dynamic which let Edwards soar ahead of Dean and Gephardt. If things look the same on the ground now as they did in 2003, then I'll just have to defer to your contemporaneous perception of events on the ground.

Frankly, the people I know in Iowa are generally either strong Edwards or strong Obama, and they would die before switching and they work a little every week to make sure that they are bringing enough neighbors to the caucus to ensure that their candidates are viable in their precinct caucuses (they all say "reaching 15% is the other candidates' problem in my precinct"). They also tell me that when they run into Hillary supporters, those people generally express their support as "Hillary, I guess." They tell me Hillary's support is wide and shallow as a puddle, but they are either Obama partisans or Edwards partisans so I don't know if their perception is colored by their bias. Also, both the Obama supporters and Edwards supporters comment on the relative youth of Obama's supporters and wonder aloud about how many great candidacies have been dashed on the plan to "get out the youth vote" to the caucus.

We'll see in six weeks.

If I ask you a question like "since Clinton Obama and Edwards will be viable in all 1,700 precincts AND Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich and Richardson won't be viable, who will your second choice be choosing only from the viable candidates of Clinton, Edwards and Obama?" How can you get a genuine response?

I've posted this at least a dozen times, but I'll gladly do it again and again for the next six weeks:

1) there is no guarantee that all of The Big Three will be viable in all 1,700 precincts; and 2) there is no guarantee that, when they are not viable folks will choose one of them to be their second choice. The polls are flawed. (since non-viable candidate supporters can join together to make a non-viable candidate viable AND supporters of viable candidates can move in the realignment process to make a non-vialbe candidate viable).

Also, there is no guarantee that a 'One' for a candidate will remain a 'One' for the next six weeks. I know a man in Davenport who worked the entire primary for Dean (yet we found out later he gave $$ to Edwards) and ended up caucusing for Kerry in the first round (actually counting to see who had the most support and joining that crowd).

I agree that Edwards is probably the strongest candidate for supporters who will stick w/him all the way to caucus night. And I bet he ends up being viable and receiving delegates in the most precincts. But that leaves second and third place open (if Edwards has enough attendees in a precinct to equal one delegate but not two or three where do those other folks go? do they stay with Edwards or do they drift over to Richardson, Dodd or Biden to ensure Obama/Clinton don't get the other delegates? THAT makes Edwards the strongest of the media favorites but also gives rise to a second tier candidate).

That seems unlikely to me (especially Dodd who's great but doesn't seem to have caught on), but I'm not there so maybe you know something.

and there is six weeks to go. With the Black/Brown forum set for Dec. 1 and then the Des Moines Register set for Dec 13th any one of them could catch fire.

best organized on the ground and whose is least well organized?

it's about who has the $$. Dodd has a lot of cash, from what I read....

Dodd b/c the Waterloo/Cedar Falls firefighters are a well organized union and Biden b/c he has a core group of supporters (about 25-30) that are long-time active Democrats. I can't say Richardson doesn't have organization here, just haven't seen as many folks who attend the 'traditional' Democratic Party events working for him. (although I have heard he has active support w/in the Hispanic community here, so maybe he'll pull and upset).

their support might go if Dodd doesn't reach 15% (I presume not to Hillary). Is there any defining characteristic of Biden's core of supporters on the county?

activists - there are educators and union members and attorneys and small business owners. He has loyal supporters from his '88 race and now their kids are involved.

Obama is going to win Iowa with about 32% to Edwards with 27% and Clinton with 22%.

Biden, Richardson and Dodd will be in the sub-10%. Kucinich will get perhaps 2%.

Bookmark this.

One of the 'second tier' will be in third w/15% and give Clinton 10%. :thumbsup:

and I don't know how much longer the MSM is going to be able to ignore that...

No one but Clinton, Obama or Edwards will get 5%+, IMO

Even in 2000 Bradley surprised Gore.

All the variables are building toward a similar experience this time.

Huckabee has stayed in the race since his surprise second place at the Ames Straw Poll. (Think, Mitt bought all those tickets and then the people he 'paid' to be there voted for Huckabee!).

It's gonna be a crazy night.

wealthy -- he'll need a lot of teddy bears and nite lights to get through December. Huckabee's repellent to me but I think the fundies like him, and that's movement against Romney's lead.

the fire fighters are a good union to have backing you.

Obama.

The differentials being well within the margin of error.

Richardson and HClinton duke it out for 4th.

Dodd is the wild card. I don't know when he plans to spend the money he's raised, but he's raised a lot.

I used to not like the guy, but I'm becoming quite fond of him.