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POLL Finds Clinton Has Support of 63% of LGB Likely Voters (lots of interesting findings here)

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 05:51 PM
Original message
POLL Finds Clinton Has Support of 63% of LGB Likely Voters (lots of interesting findings here)
Edited on Thu Nov-29-07 05:55 PM by jefferson_dem
Hunter Poll Finds Clinton Has Support of 63% of LGB Likely Voters

In the first public, political survey ever conducted by a university-based team of scholars with a nationally representative sample of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGBs) Americans, results released today show that Senator Hillary Clinton has the support of 63 percent of LGB likely voters in the Democratic primaries, followed by Senator Barack Obama with 22 percent and John Edwards with 7 percent. The Hunter College Poll also finds that during the process of “coming out,” LGBs become more liberal and more engaged in the political process than the general population.

“We found a stunning transformation in political views in the LGB community of a magnitude that is virtually unparalleled among social groupings in the U.S. population,” said political science professor Kenneth Sherrill of Hunter College, one of the study’s investigators. The Hunter College Poll was conducted with 768 respondents by Knowledge Networks, Inc. from November 15th through November 26th, 2007.

Other findings include:

• Nine in 10 LGB likely voters will vote in the Democratic primaries and 21 percent say that lesbian and gay rights will be the most important issue influencing their vote in 2008.

• 72 percent of LGB likely voters consider Senator Clinton a supporter of gay rights, with Senator Obama at 52 percent and former Senator Edwards at 41 percent. On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 37 percent, followed by Senator John McCain at 13 percent.

“These findings suggest opportunities. Clinton benefits from a high turnout in this very Democratic bloc; her opponents would benefit from making their stated support for gay rights more visible to LGB voters,” said Murray Edelman, a distinguished scholar at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute and one of the study’s investigators.

• 33 percent of all respondents say they are “very interested” in politics compared to 22 percent of the Knowledge Networks general population sample. And 36 percent said they became more interested in politics during their “coming out” period.

• LGBs were more likely than the general population to have contacted a government official in the past 12 months (23 percent to 16 percent).

“These levels of civic engagement indicate that gay people can have a bigger influence on public policy than suggested by their relatively small share of the population,” said Patrick J. Egan, an assistant professor at New York University and another of the study’s investigators.

• Asked what gay rights goals are “extremely important,” LGBs chose:

<SNIP>

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings (n=768)

82/12 Clinton
73/16 Obama
63/16 Edwards
28/15 Kucinich
30/45 McCain
28/55 Giuliani

http://www.hunter.cuny.edu/news/#hunterpoll

****

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 05:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. That poll is horrendously flawed
It was not taken from a representative sample. In fact, I'd go as far to say that its sample was deliberately chosen to benefit Hillary...
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. It's Hard To Get A Probability Sample Of Gay Folks
Edited on Thu Nov-29-07 05:58 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
Are you going to start randomly calling people and ask them if they are gay, bisexual, lesbian, or transgendered?
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
15. So what?
Edited on Fri Nov-30-07 12:20 AM by Nederland
So it's hard. That's no excuse for publishing results that you know are flawed. That's no excuse for claiming that a set of people support you when you know damn well they don't. A sample made up of 49% bisexuals and 51% women is supposed to be representative of the gay community? Please...
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #15
21. It's Nearly Impossible
It's nearly impossible to get accurate collective data when it comes to something as personal as sexuality... That's why Kinsey's research, Shere Hite's research is so questionable; because it's based on self selected respondents...
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. Missing my point
The problem is that the choice of sample makeup is deliberately skewed to favor Hillary. Anybody who knows anything about the gay community knows that there are twice as many homosexual men as homosexual women. Nevertheless, the polling firm deliberately chose to create a sample that made the two almost equal in size. This is NOT a self selection problem--the tiny transgendered community aside, you can tell whether or not you are polling a man or a women. Given that fact, why would the polling firm choose to make its sample half women? Could it be, just maybe, that the polling firm, knowing that Hillary does better among women than men, skewed the sample deliberately? No, couldn't be that... :eyes:
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's Ironic That Hill Gets Trashed On This Board For Not Being Progressive Enough
Yet she has strong pluarities among gay folks and people of color...
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I agree.
It's interesting that, in this poll, she is not very far ahead of Obama in fav-unfav but creams him and everyone else in the horserace.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. She's As Good As Any "Electable" Dem On Social Issues
I think some folks here don't like her economic and foreign policy positions though I would argue on economics she's well within the mainstream of Democratic thought... On defense/foreign policy she tilts right...
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Kucinich4America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. Can we dispense with the "electability" fiction already?
They pulled that crap in 2004. Didn't help Kerry in the end, did it? (and yes, I know Ohio was stolen, but that's not the point)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Kerry Made A Credible Showing...I'm Sorry Dennis Kucininich Is Unelectable
I believe he only got ten percent of the vote in his own state's primary...

If he barely registers in double digits in his own state's primary how can he possibly win a national election?
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #11
23. The point should be that we need election process secured because electability DOESN'T MATTER
when the votes are suppressed, voter rolls purged, and electronic machines rigged against Democrats. ANY Democrat.
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Kucinich4America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. She's not progressive enough.
Most relevant, in this case, is her lack of support for full equality of LGBT citizens (i.e. marriage)

There is a candidate who DOES support full equality.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. If The Democratic Nominee Makes The Election A Referendum On Gay Marriage He Or She Will Lose
Gay marriage amendments were shot down in I believe eleven states in 04 and one can argue that the Fundys those amendments brought out of the woodwork cost Kerry the election...
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
6. she doesn't count this gayboi as a supporter
Edited on Thu Nov-29-07 06:04 PM by themartyred
but I hope whoever the nominee is, they won't throw us under the bus... I thought Kerry was wonderful in '04 as our nominee in speaking in the debate about GLBT people deserving the same rights.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. The Poll Didn't Say Her Support Was Unanimous
You can calm down now...

Anecdotally I know lots and lots of gay people who are supporting the Hill...
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cuke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I find it very funny
Everytime there's a poll identifying a demographic group as having a favorite, there's a DUer posting "I'm a xxxxx (insert demo group) and I do NOT support that candidate"

Lots of people don't understand statistics
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farmboy Donating Member (147 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. You're right, lots of people DON'T understand statistics, and they will go around saying...
things like "Wow, gays and lesbians are supporting Hillary this year." Or "GLBTs sure don't like Edwards, Obama, Biden, etc." All because of this statistical information. Therefore, it is my intent to be sure that those who read this topic also have responses to read emphasizing exactly what this thread initally says, that lots of gays and lesbians are voting for democratic candidates OTHER THAN Senator Clinton. Go JOHN and ELIZABETH!!
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. I was told to calm down for merely stating I don't support her
amazing what some people will write, isn't it? there are some winners on this board this year... absolute winners.
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cuke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. Aww, poor baby
tell us where it hurts
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. You're right
Lots of people don't understand stastistics--like all the people that think this poll is worth anything at all.
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cuke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #16
25. That would be those I spoke of
If they didnt think it was worth anything at all, they wouldnt bother responding

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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 02:31 AM
Response to Reply #7
17. why are your posts so OBNOXIOUS?
I said she doesn't count me as a supporter and that whoever our nom is, that they don't throw us under a bus... that's it, that's all.. not one word running her down, and yet you always seem to BLOW things up with your posts. Are you unhappy? If so, what's your beef? "You can calm down now...", I was perfectly fine, and was stating my opinion without many words, or fanfare... now Calm down!

:wtf:
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 07:10 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Deleted sub-thread
Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
farmboy Donating Member (147 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
8. This gay man is an Edwards supporter all the way. No clue who my 2nd choice would be.
Edited on Thu Nov-29-07 06:11 PM by farmboy
But I do know that Obama WAS my 2nd choice and is now completely off my radar after his disasterous actions in South Carolina.
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #8
19. I second your opinions word for word
as do two of my Bi & Lesbian friends that I have... interesting. I guess it's possible Hillary's gay support might be very strong in the NE & out West, and it's not so strong from the GLBT crowd elsewhere, because frankly, there's very few people I know personally in FL who like her a lot for a candidate. One I just found who does (she's Straight) loves Dubya! bleh...
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
22. You can tell it's a good poll, because it has the anti-Hillarites sputtering.
Like her 83% approval rating among blacks.
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Mmmmm hmmm!
Nothing like a postive post about the Hillster to get the stick up the asses rolling on the floor.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-30-07 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. You are ignoring the facts
The poll sample is made up of half women and the gay community is not even close to half women. That means the poll sample was delibrately skewed to create a result that favored Hillary. If you have another reason why the poll sample was so unrepresentative of the gay community I'd love to hear it.
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