No Safe Haven for Clinton in New Hampshire.

Nov. 30, 2007 | MANCHESTER, N.H.

<snip>

It was her so-called firewall state, the place where she could declare herself the "Comeback Kid," even if she lost the opening-gun Iowa caucuses.

But now the gap has narrowed, with six published polls this month all giving Clinton a lead of between 10 and 14 percentage points. And for the first time this political season, there is an inkling that Clinton might not be able to rebound from an Iowa defeat here in the Granite State. "I think it's very difficult for this to be Hillary's firewall state if she loses Iowa, unless she is a close second there," says Andy Smith, who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "Historically, there is a 10 percent bounce in New Hampshire for the Iowa winner," Smith points out. "And equally important, the loser of Iowa takes an 8-10 percent hit."

Even the Clinton campaign acknowledges the potential for a bumpy ride. "This is going to be a tighter race than it's been perceived up to now," said Nick Clemons, Clinton's state coordinator. "New Hampshire is just not the kind of state that a Democrat wins by 20 points."

<snip>

A mid-November CNN-WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that a whopping 47 percent of Democrats said they were "still trying to decide" on a candidate. Even that number understates how much is up for grabs. When asked separately about Clinton, Obama and Edwards, 75 percent of those polled said that they were supporting or might consider voting for each of them.

<snip>

As Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, a strong supporter of Bill Richardson, asked, "If you don't know enough about Hillary Clinton by now to be for her, what other information could you possibly learn in the next six weeks?"

As the most affluent state on the early caucus and primary calendar, New Hampshire is a state where, in theory, Obama should do well. He fits the profile of the new-look, upscale, intellectual reformer that New Hampshire has fallen in love with in the past -- mostly notably Gary Hart in 1984 and Paul Tsongas in 1992.

more...
http://sacdcweb07.salon.com/news/feature/2007/11/30/clinton/

"Look buddy, I'm winning NH and that's all there is to it!"


~~~~~

I think there is a good chance she will fizzle right out of the box. Third place in Iowa, 2nd or 3rd in NH, then on to SC where Obama cleans up.

When half of the voters haven't chosen, anything can happen. I think that out of the ones that haven't decided yet, hillary will do poorly. Everyone knows her now, so if they aren't for her now, they have second thoughts about her and that means they are likely to break for Obama or Edwards.

I view this as sorta like polls before an election between an incumbent and a challenger. If it is close and there are a lot of undecideds, the undecideds tend to break for the challenger. In this case, Hillary because of her name recognition is like the incumbent.

She has not sealed the deal yet. The last two weeks before an election are what matter. We shall see where the voters break. I would not be surprised at all if Hillary comes in third or fourth in Iowa. It is not too late for Biden or Richardson to increase their numbers to third place.

Of course, if Hillary comes in fourth, the natioal media will trumpet it as a victory for Hillary. They will say she did what she needed to do, avoid fifth place....still standing, no knock out punch, Hillary is poised to continue her Big Mo into NH as the odds on favorite. They will stress that Iowa has not voted for the winner all the time, and pretty much try to show us that what happened didn't really mean anything. :-)

I think an underlying factor with Hillary will be the electability in November factor. If they don't think she can win in November, they will look elsewhere. Obama and Edwards don't have to attack her as much as prove that they are credible alternatives. I think Edwards attacking Hillary helps Obama. Also, Hillary attacking Obama has the unwitting result of propping Obama up as the alternative to Hillary and it also gives him more attention. Seems to me that Edwards and Hillary are both throwing punches, and Obama is poised to benefit from both. In this mileau, "little things" like BIll Clinton getting caught fibbing may serve to undermine Hillary with regard to electability.

Even though the seating of delegates from FL and MI are in dispute the media will still carry the results from those states and I dare say FL and MI are more important to Democratic chances in the Fall than South Carolina which hasn't gone blue since Muhammad Ali was the heavyweight champ, John Travolta was Vinnie Barbaraino, and Bob Seger was singing about "Night Moves"...

Whoever wins Iowa and NH will get a boost in all these states. Since Hillary has been the prohibitive favorite in Nevada in the polls, if she wins by a small margin what will be noticed is the erosion. She would need a big win here or it would not mean much.

We are all speculating at this point, but what counts in the elections are the two weeks prior. The entire political landscape could change from what it is now, due to factors I discussed above.

Of course, if Hillary wins IOwa and NH handily, it would be hard to stop her.

I just don't see that happening from where I sit. Obama is not my first choice or my second choice or my third choice. However I think he is the most likely at this point to win.

Another point about Hillary. Since she is the most well-known candidate, and has been portrayed for years now as the inevitable nominee...if she stumbles out of the box I don't see how she can recover from that. If she hasn't won either Iowa or NH, she is in deep, deep doo-doo.

She wins NV, FL*, and MI* and then loses SC...

It comes down to Super Tuesday...




*Again, I am aware that only half the delegates from MI and none of the delegates from FL will be seated but the media is not going to ignore voting the fourth and sixth largest states in the Union...

We have to remember that in 03 at this point, Kerry was in single digits in the polls. Dean was the prohibitive favorite. After nh, kerry was steam rolling everywhere.

I predict pretty much the same. If hillary loses ia and nh, she becomes pretty much an asterisc for this campaign

"A mid-November CNN-WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire"
http://www.wmur.com/politics/14651842/detail.html

Last I looked, 36 was still a bigger number than 22.
The most interesting number actually is Edwards, who is freefalling out of the top three in NH.