South Carolina -Clinton -45% Obama 21% Edwards 12%

I think it's a function of his polling around three percent among African Americans who make up half the Democratic electorate there...

If short-term memory serves, we have two surprising NH polls for Edwards in two days, at 15% and 17%.

Oddly, though, Edwards and Obama are probably going to peak too soon. The Clinton buyer's remorse effect might run its course before the voting starts.

I was surprised to be reminded that Dean had a major surge in Iowa 2-3 weeks before the caucus before rolling off the table.

We will need more polls to see what the Biden v. Richardson situation is in Iowa.

I think it's decided on Super Tuesday ...

a two person race coming out of NH. (And the Republicans won't either)

The great unknown is whether a Jesse Jackson / Doug Wilder effect comes into play. Obama might have a ceiling at about 30%, or no ceiling at all. If Obama does have a ceiling then the race would have trouble getting down to two, because Obama's support is passionate, giving him a strong floor. Since racial attitudes do change over time, and since Obama is the strongest minority candidate ever, it's probably unwise to extrapolate directly from history.

And there could be a reverse-Wilder effect in SC just as strong as any Wilder effect in Iowa or NH.

As the saying goes, "That's why they play the game."

When He Won South Carolina...

If "Big Mo" determined races George Bush would have faced Jimmy Carter in 80 and not Ronald Reagan...

do you have anything you'd like to share? Are you insinuating that Rove is backing Clinton and working on her behalf in SC, smearing Edwards and Obama?

must also have Karl Rove slinging mud for someone because Bush stole SC from McCain in '00 with a drity tricks campaign of outrageous lies and smear.

I cannot imagine any of our Democrats would do that, but unless some Democrat has such plans, the '00 Repub primary in SC has no bearing on any Democratic race this cycle.

When McCain called out the Fundys he mortgaged the Southern states for a win in more secular New Hampshire...

And I have a larger point... I think "Big Mo" is overrated...In 76 Ronald Reagan lost a dozen or so primaries and caucuses in a row before he broke through in North Carolina...He then rolled off several big wins and came within fifty seven delegates of beating a sitting president... Bill Clinton didn't win a primary or caucus for a long while either in 92...


All that being said I do expect the media to try to drive this race... I'm not prescient enough to know if they will succede...

If you remember he started his 00 campaign by calling Falwell and Robertson "agents of intolerance" and SC is a Fundy haven...