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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) |
Herman Munster (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 10:52 AM Original message |
Getting excited over a 2% lead in an Iowa poll is laughable |
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gasperc (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 10:54 AM Response to Original message |
1. Thanks, Herman, I thought I was the only crazy one |
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Perky (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 10:56 AM Response to Original message |
2. It is not the 2 points.......it is the trend line that is exciting |
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Herman Munster (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:00 AM Response to Reply #2 |
3. the trend is meaningless |
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DemocratSinceBirth (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:02 AM Response to Reply #3 |
4. I Agree With Most Of What You Say |
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Perky (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:29 AM Response to Reply #3 |
15. To some degree you are right |
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wyldwolf (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:03 AM Response to Original message |
5. especially when it the lead seems to change every day and in every poll |
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Herman Munster (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:06 AM Response to Reply #5 |
7. anyone objective knows it's a 3 way tie |
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Adelante (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:04 AM Response to Original message |
6. Yeah, we know all that |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:06 AM Response to Original message |
8. It's better than a 2% deficit |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:13 AM Response to Reply #8 |
9. Well (and this applies to ALL candidates) it's really not |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:42 AM Response to Reply #9 |
16. The margin of error is not a range of equal probability. It is always better to be ahead than behind... |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:55 AM Response to Reply #16 |
17. I don't think you are wrong, but... |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 12:08 PM Response to Reply #17 |
18. Yes, sampling is very imprecise |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 01:19 PM Response to Reply #18 |
21. See that's the difference. Marbles ARE either blue or red |
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1corona4u (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:15 AM Response to Original message |
10. Hey now... |
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DrFunkenstein (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:22 AM Response to Original message |
11. Not True. Looking at the 2004 Polls, I Knew Dean's Lead Was Softening |
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Jack Bone (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:22 AM Response to Original message |
12. I wonder if there's another DK-Edwards deal in the works? |
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Adelante (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:24 AM Response to Reply #12 |
13. Doubtful |
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Rydz777 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 11:27 AM Response to Original message |
14. Right. All polls of the caucus system are virtuallty worthless. nt |
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suston96 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 12:26 PM Response to Original message |
19. The trend line.... |
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AtomicKitten (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 12:27 PM Response to Original message |
20. It just seems that way when when your opponent is behind. |
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asdjrocky (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 01:27 PM Response to Original message |
22. Yes indeed, it is a three way tie. |
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BeyondGeography (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 01:33 PM Response to Original message |
23. Obama has the best machine in Iowa |
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Forkboy (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Nov-30-07 02:33 PM Response to Original message |
24. Oh, NOW they're laughable. |
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