Who drops out after Iowa?

I know it's way too early to talk about this, but who drops out after Iowa? 4 years ago it was Gephardt. I think if they don't get in the double digits, it may be Dodd if he's smart, and maybe Richardson. I really look forward to the field shrinking and I don't think candidates with no chance of winning should hold on for selfish reasons.

Dodd, Richardson and Biden have supporters who are working damned hard.

Who drops out after Iowa?

The second tier candidates who haven't got any money left.

I don't mean to offend or discourage anyone. It's probably not as much fun for their supporters.

and Gravel, although I have sent Dodd money in the past and will do so again probably, if he keeps defending FISA. However, my first choice is Edwards.

I do not think is damaging to have this discussion here on a democratic board.
It does not mean that you wish a candidate harm if you talk about their chances of succeeding or failing. After all, it is only about picking a winner in the primary.

not make it to the Nevada caucus.

It looks to me that Richardson still has the 4th most support but Biden has more positive momentum.

So that might be a breaking point.

more weight.

Nevada, like South Carolina, is following national polling trends instead of campaign-specific polling trends (actually, that's pretty much the case everywhere but Iowa and New Hampshire). With Richardson polling at around 5% in Nevada, I think he'll get out before Nevada's caucus and throw his favored son status behind someone else

He says he will drop out. I think Dodd, too. Richardson probably won't before New Hampshire.

Dodd is living in Iowa, so that makes some sense. I agree on Richardson. I think he'll stick around for NH.

Iowa's too early...and they're so close this time around.

Obama/Clinton real close at 1 and 2, Richardson and Biden come with about 15% each in a close 3rd and 4th. Edwards, at 5%, becomes a trivia question answer.

If there was a major disapointment such as Edwards (or Obama) finishing out of the top 3, then maybe.

That one of them finishes third or worse right?

only 33 days between Iowa and Super Duper Tuesday - it may be that they all try to stay in until then . Maybe the less financially secure don't campaign so much, but why not stick it out?

What's another 5 days. I wonder if there is a debate scheduled in between.

Edit: There is a Debate on January 6th. That's going to be a wild one.

the last debate in in Iowa on Dec. 13th (at least the last DNC debate)

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070910105929AAgA9gW

December 10 – Democratic Debate – CBS. CANCELLED
December 17 – Democratic Debate – CNN/The Politico. Time unknown.

2008 (all initial caucus and primary dates are now subject and indeed likely to change thanks to SC’s moving up of their Republican primary)

January 1-2 – "MySpace primary"
January 3 – Iowa Caucuses
January 5 – Republican Debate – Network unknown. Time unknown.
January 6 – Democratic Debate – Network unknown. Time unknown.
January 8 – New Hampshire Primary
January 9 – Republican Debate – NPR. Time unknown.
January 10 – Democratic Debate – NPR. Time unknown.
January 15 - Michigan Primary (No Dem delagates.)
January 15 – Democratic Debate – Network unknown. Time unknown.
January 19 – Nevada Caucuses; South Carolina Republican Primary
January 24 – Democratic Debate – CNN/Congressional Black Caucus Institute. Time unknown.
January 29 – South Carolina Democratic Primary; Florida Primary
January 30 – Republican Debate – CNN/LA Times/The Time unknown.
January 31 – Democratic Debate – CNN/LA Times. Time unknown.

A much better schedule is here: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=140388

I guess I didn't keep track after Iowa's Caucuses :blush:

as the difference between what was expected and what happened. Also around Iowa some of people dropped out - Mosley/Braun and Graham. Kuchinich and Sharpton who summed together had no chance stayed in a long time - to get their issues discussed.

In Gephardt's case he was thought to be the very likely winner of Iowa, then either 1 or 2 with Dean having the other position. A weak fourth in his "better" early state made it clear that victory was not in the cards. What had to be harder was that he had opted not to run for the House, so that concession speech was the beginning of the end of his political career. Imagine going from people conjecturing that you could win Iowa and be the front runner one month - then out of it all the next.

It also may depend on how NH looks - there's little time between them. If one of the top three does significantly awful (like Gephardt ) and drops out, it also changes the dynamic and might let someone else get some air.