With Iowa tight, New Hampshire becoming Clinton's firewall

Boston Globe: With Iowa tight, N.H. becoming Clinton's firewall
By Marcella Bombardieri
Globe Staff / November 30, 2007

CONCORD, N.H. - With Hillary Clinton faltering in polls leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary is looming as a possible make-or-break moment for her - in a place where she has most of the party's key endorsements and a sizable lead in the polls, but where a defeat could be devastating.

Unlike in Iowa, where the major endorsements are split among several candidates, Clinton has the support of most of the Democratic party establishment in New Hampshire. She has other important advantages here that she lacks in Iowa, including a history of campaigning for her husband and New Hampshire's recent tradition of electing female politicians. However, her lead in the New Hampshire polls has narrowed in the last month, and analysts say her enviable organization does not guarantee protection against the wave of momentum that could propel Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, if he were to win the Iowa caucuses, which are five days before the Jan. 8 primary.

Because of New Hampshire's traditional influence and the high expectations generated by Clinton's mass of endorsements here, analysts say, she could not lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and survive in the race....

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Clinton has maintained a clear lead in (New Hampshire) polls, though recent ones have gotten tighter. A CNN/WMUR poll in September put her ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 20 percent. In a Suffolk University/WHDH poll this week, she led him 34 percent to 22 percent.

And the results of the Iowa caucus could significantly influence the New Hampshire primary, said Mark Mellman, a veteran Democratic strategist who is not affiliated with a campaign. An Iowa victory by former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who is vying with Clinton and Obama for the lead in some Iowa polls, would not translate much in New Hampshire, where Edwards fared very poorly in 2004, Mellman said. But if Obama won Iowa, there would be a flood of positive press about him and questions about whether Clinton is electable. "It's unfair and inaccurate, but it would be a lot of chaff to have to navigate through in five days," he said....

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/11/30/with_iowa_tight_nh_becoming_clintons_firewall/

Iowa winner gains 10 in NH, loser (if any) loses 10.

You are not the only people in this party capable of beating a Republican, and you just might be one of the less attractive options.

Now that that realization is sinking in, Hillary has to come up with a new narrative (i.e. her vision for how the country moves forward together and redistributes power away from the ownership class and back to the public/government) or she's going to lose. It will be interesting to see what happens.