The DMR poll raises the stakes for Obama

The poll portrays him a the frontrunner and bases his frontrunner status on a huge influx of first time caucus goers, including large chunks of Independents and even a sizeable number of Republicans.

If this does happen, then Obama is going to get a huge Mongo-sized bounce out of Iowa, especially going into NH where independents can play a big role too. He doesn't just win, he generates big turnout and crossover (or apolitcal) support while winning.


The flip side is that if the surge of new caucus goers don't turn out (or never knew where to caucus or were too busy doing 18-34 yr old stuff, etc...) then Obama probably doesn't win and the fabled crossover appeal means doo-dah.

The logistics and reliability of getting new caucus-goers to show up is quite daunting, so there's reason to be skeptical that it will occur. The turnout he generates at many of his rallies suggests it's possible.

Either way, the stakes for Obama have definitely gotten higher.

that is represented in the new DMR poll. Independents love him, and more than one Republican has supported him publically. It's not outside the realm of possibility that he'll draw an entirely new group of voters. He's the only CANDIDATE...not only Democrat, but CANDIDATE that can SWEEP the General Election.

is going to play notable roll in turning out the votes. He has an awesome grassroots game. :)

If the newcomers turn out, it'll confirm that, if they don't then he ain't got game.

Obama 39%
Clinton 15%
Edwards 24%

Who has the best shot at winning them over?

There are basically 40% Republicans no matter what. And 40% Democrats no matter what. It is the remaining 20% that decide every election.

Seems like Obama scores best among the independents.

but the one truth they can't get around is what it says about Obama's electability relative to Clinton and Edwards. He gets indies, Republicans and new voters (i.e.youth) to come out for him in big numbers. This is the main message that I hope will sink in with primary voters around the country. This guy has the potential to win by such a healthy margin that he actually might be able to govern.

out to vote for him. He has to prove that Thursday night. If they don't materialize then it shoots a big gaping whole in that argument. That's why the stakes have been raised for Obama.

I agree whole heartedly. It will be interesting to see this one pan out.

Which we'll know happened if the poll proves to be wildly off base.

...on the basis of a poll they thought was suspect in the first place?

Only Hillary Triangulists could come up with a mouthful like that. The poll is either accurate or not. If it is not, then she can't claim comeback kid status as a result. That is just silly!

I know the phrase comeback kid is dear to some clintonians' hearts. But come on now. Just 12 hours ago, people were pretty grim about Obama here. So if anything, Obama is the comeback kid for the time being at least! That may change tomorrow!

I'm simply saying that the only possible benefit this poll can have to Hillary is that it creates a possible "comeback kid" scenario. I have watched enough wild goings-on that I don't put anything past anybody. Meaning it wouldn't surprise me AT ALL to learn somebody intentionally screwed with the poll to help Hillary, or anybody else for that matter. People aren't as ethical as they pretend.

Wow, who would have thunk it? :sarcasm:

We are so fucked as a party.

And the people here are too stupid to get it.

Unbelievable.

As a Barack Hussein Obama supporter, it's a prerequisite to do that isn't it?

Because that's all I have heard from Obama supporters on this board: create a strawman, then tear it down.

The question: Are Obama supporters stupid?

The answer: No.

Meanwhile, back in reality, the Republicans want Barack Hussein Obama to be the Democratic nominee.

Rove et al are licking their chops, thus the cross-over vote in Iowa.

Not unlike McCain winning the Michigan primary in 2000 (it was an open primary and Dems could vote. They voted McCain because they disdain Bush)

We are so fucked as a party.

So fucked.

Some would see Hillary as the candidate that the Rovians would most like to see as the nominee.

Obama may be quite different. Unlike Hillary, Obama has a more positive message, speaks of hope, can attract independents and crossovers whereas Hillary cannot. Hillary cannot even campaign on the iraq war because she supported it and would look like just another of her switching sides for political gain flip flops if she did.

I think it amazing, actually, if the des moines poll is accurate that so many independents are now drawn to the race. If this is true we have a new wave in politics that the old way of thinking couldn't predict or understand. Attracting new voters to the mix. This is absolutely inspirational. And, the great thing about it, the candidate doing it is a black man, someone who in times past people would not think he would have a chance to run, let alone attract new voters. Heck, the only ones I have seen saying a black man can't win are Hillary supporters. So much for the old fashioned way of looking at things. So 90s....

Let me be clear.

Barack Obama is okay with me. I am a Yellow Dog Democrat.

But are you sure they are all independents crossing over? Or are Republicans, too? And what is their motive?

I am old enough to have seen this play out before.

Michigan Dems were all saying to each other back in 2000, "we can't believe the Republicans opened up their primary so that we could vote."

And Michigan Dems despised Bush. We all went out and voted McCain to spite Bush. McCain won Michigan in 2000 if you can recall.

I see the same thing happening in Iowa.

Plus, a few of my Republican friends have already brought the whole scenario up and laughed at me. That's who they want as a candidate to face.

Just saying.

because there's no chance she can win the GE with such high negatives and little independent/moerate support. Get over it.

Mr Melodramtic-man.

Jumping to conclusions is all you can!


I don't think either Obama or Hillary can win a General Election. Not that I don't want either to. I do.

the end.

so, OMG!, they are deciding to vote for Obama. My father is a Republican and is seriously considering him. So yes, some republicans probably do want him in the white house. If that upsets you...that's your problem.

snook'ems!

Tee,hee!

if you're ok with that, that's all that matter I guess....:-)

yep.

"that's all that matter".

;-)

and byte me.

Wouldn't it be so much better if we didn't do that and just attracted the ones who voted with us when we lost? SARC