Looks like Intraders think Obama will win Iowa but will lose the nomination to Hillary

antiimperialist

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:17 PM
Original message

Looks like Intraders think Obama will win Iowa but will lose the nomination to Hillary

Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 03:18 PM by antiimperialist

It's interesting how in the prediction market Obama has opened a comfortable lead when it comes to the Iowa nomination, but when we go to the overall nomination, Clinton holds a huge advantage.

Iowa:
Obama: 49
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 15

US Democratic nomination:

Obama: 26
Clinton: 66
Edwards: 7

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=483463

Could it be that we are overestimating impact of a likely close race in Iowa?

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surfermaw

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:18 PM
Response to Original message

1. Don't count Edwards out!!!

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jenmito

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. Sorry-but he's out if he doesn't win Iowa, where he's campaigned for years. n/t

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Joe the Revelator

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:20 PM
Response to Original message

2. The nationals won't flip until the intraders see how much bump Obama gets from winning Iowa and NH

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jenmito

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:20 PM
Response to Original message

3. I bet if he wins Iowa, then NH, then SC, those numbers will change quickly. n/t

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skipos

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:24 PM
Response to Original message

5. And they still think 9iu11iani will win the GOP nom.

Which shows how bad intrade is at predicting events.
I have made some good money off of suckers there.

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gaiilonfong

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Tue Jan-01-08 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. That is the funniest of all their predictions

bwaaaahhahahahah

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JackORoses

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Tue Jan-01-08 03:40 PM
Response to Original message

6. they also have Obama to win NH and SC

New Hampshire
Intrade Political 'Securities'.........Percentage.............US$ Traded
Hillary Clinton to Win...................45.0%.................$9.5K
Barack Obama to Win......................55.0%.................$9.6K
John Edwards to Win......................6.0%..................$5.3K

*

South Carolina
Intrade Political 'Securities'........Percentage..............US$ Traded
Hillary Clinton to Win..................40.0%.................$2.6K
Barack Obama to Win.....................50.0%.................$4.6K
John Edwards to Win.....................10.0%.................$1.6K

*

uh oh

somebody's got momentum

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earthlover

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Tue Jan-01-08 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. I'm sorry but if Obama wins Iowa, NH and SC, he has a better chance than Hillary to win it all

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