Iowa voter registration and caucus factoids

2004 Voter registration for Iowa for 1-01-04 (just prior to the 2004 caucus)

584,000 Republicans
533,000 Democrats
703,000 Independents


About 124,000 people participated in the Democratic caucus.

Approximately 100,000 Democrats (18-19% turnout)
Approximately 22,000 Independents (3% of the independents)
Approximately 1,500 Republicans


2004 Voter registration for Iowa for 3-01-04 (after the caucus)

579,000 Republicans
562,000 Democrats
697,000 Independents


Two observations--Independents actually make up the largest block of voters in Iowa. And the 2004 caucus did move registration numbers towards the Democrats.


2008 Voter Registration numbers (actually 12-03-07)

575,000 Republicans
603,000 Democrats
740,000 Independents


The Democrats have moved ahead of the Republicans in voter registration, but Independents continue to be the largest group.

If Democrats turn out at the same rate as 2004 that means

Approximately 115,000-120,000 Democrats

If the DMR poll is right and 40% of causus goers are independents

Approximately 75,000-80,000 Independents

If the the DMR poll is right and 5% are Republicans

Approximately 10,000 Republicans

Total turnout 200,000-210,000


That means a little over 10% of Independents and 2% of Republicans caucusing with a little under 20% of Democrats.

10% of Independents does seem feasible as all the campaigns have gone after Independents. The 5% of Repubs seem a little suspect, but won't have a huge numerical impact if true.

Whether 200,000 is a possible turnout tomorrow night, we will find out.

I still think the Independent number is too high though.

I just don't get it. That's too much of an increase. Especially when you consider that the 2004 caucus was just as well publicized.

...they are telling us what to expect, as precinct captains.

Based on internal polling in our own neighborhoods, we are being told to expect a 20-25 percent
increase in caucus participants--using 04 numbers as a baseline.

For example, in my precinct, about 100 people caucused last time. I was told to expect about
120 to 130 people--depending on the weather.

It wouldn't suprise me if these participation numbers increased quite a bit.

This process has many people captivated. Democrats understand what the stakes are this time.
They're very motivated, after the BushCo nightmare. We have such a remarkable slate of
candidates and their inspiring campaigns have generated a great deal of interest.

Though Independent and Republicans made up less than 25%. Probably about 50,000. We'll know in a couple of months when voter registration numbers are updated.

It also means that about 185,000 pre-caucus Democrats turned out.

Turnout for registered Democrats (including the new Democrats) will end up being about 35%.