Is Obama Really Ahead in Iowa?

ARG had Clinton up by 14, DMR has Obama up by 7.

...

Two things jumped out at me regarding the DMR poll. One, it predicts that 60 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be first-timers. I find that simply impossible to believe. I've been working my precinct, where we had 175 at the 2004 caucus. I have found very, very few people who attended in 2004 and do not plan to caucus again.

If 60 percent of the caucus-goers are new, that would suggest a turnout in my precinct of at least 300 people. Seems impossible.

...

Big Tent Democrat does the math and concludes that if Obama truly if the DMR model is correct and Obama is truly ahead, the majority of his support is not from Democrats. Which is probably one of the reasons he feels at liberty to engage in wink-wink, nudge-nudge derision of them in an appeal to more conservative voters.

http://firedoglake.com/2008/01/01/is-obama-really-ahead-in-iowa/

I propogandize with my heart...I analyze with my head...

Romney, Huck and McCain.

I think Obama has been directing a strong
campaign towards Republicans and Independents
who might be ready to move away from the FUBAR
disasters of Bushinc.

I can't exactly blame Obama for doing that, but
it sure disaffected me ...

Go Edwards!

~

wouldn't it be a safe bet that with all the extra excitment this year 60% of caucus goers will be new?

Thank God, thank god! The voting begins today, and the polls become truly meaningless.

Polls are going to end tomorrow?

I don't think so.

We'll have a poll to see who liked which polls best.

My favorite poll of all time? The poll that ranks the NCAA basketball teams the day after the tournament ends. Damn, we're a stupid people.

If you read the responses by the people Armando quoted, they blast his assumption.

This is Clintons Rove Wolfson spreading this nonsense around the net to turn off progressives.
Clinton is going down and she ONLY cares ABOUT HERSELF, SHE WILL TAKE the entire Democratic party over the cliff if she doesn't win!

to find out who people support.

but Jane Hamsher hasn't made sense about this race for awhile now anyway.

Many might actually be Democrats.

and by the way Obama does well with Independent voters which we will need to win in November and which Hillary Clinton will have a harder time attracting.

with the North. He's toast, and has been from the start.

all that changes tomorrow!

will close GA and others with no problem as well.

However, I think it's worth noting that Obama is not the only candidate who has pitched for new caucus goers in Iowa; Clinton herself has worked hard at it. We're talking about a 10-15% increase over 2004, in a race that will possibly be historic in one way or another and is unprecedented in terms of spending. People also are caucusing in a change election, so throw the bums out is in play. And it's a year when independents are going largely Democratic. While there's no predicting turnout for certain, and it could be somewhat lower, I don't find a 60% prediction out of the realm of reality.

Obama will get nothing because he dared criticize a shady 527 group that was attacking him.