Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/1/3/82229/27050

Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead. It is not that I do not believe it is so. In fact I do. but like Zogby's cooking of his books, it is based on the DMR Poll.

Unlike DMR, Zogby releases no internals about his poll. So much easier to cook them that way. But leaving that aside, the key question the DMR Poll presents is this - will Independents and Republicans will turn out in unprecedented numbers for an Iowa Caucus (DMR predicts that 40 percent of Dem caucusgoers will be Indys, in 2004, when there was NO GOP Caucus, it was 19%, and 5% will be Republicans, in 2004 it was 1%). If turnout is similar to 2004, the DMR Poll would predict a Clinton victory.

So there you have it. Obama will make history and Iowans will vote in unprecedented fashion is the Gold Standard prediction. I'll accept it. So what does it mean? First things first. NOW Obama MUST WIN Iowa tonight. Not finish second to anyone. A loss will be crushing for him. Edwards always had to win. Inadvertently, I think Clinton has won the expectations game. She is expected to lose. And a loss will hurt of course. Indeed, I think a loss to an Obama win costs her the nomination. But if Edwards wins and of course, if she wins, I think she secures the nomination

According to Ann Seltzer, the DMR pollster, who is also the most respected pollster in Iowa:

She made a pretty assinine comment towards Edwards at the end of James Zogby's Viewpoint show yesterday on Link TV that I think reflected the "pro-corporate" stance that the DMR made when rejecting Edwards this time around in their endorsement of Clinton the other day too. Wouldn't be surprised if she was the one that wrote the earlier comment in the DMR endorsement article too.

I'll put a transcript of that portion of Zogby's show a bit later so that you can see what I mean.

1) I am on the record as saying the finish will be 1) Obama 2) Edwards 3) Clinton

2) I analyze with my head and advocate and agitate with my heart...

3) ARG seems like a major outlier...

4) The caucus will make ARG into idiots or geniuses

5) Zogby plays a lot of games...He had Hilllary going from a four point lead to a seven point deficit in six or so days...That's just not plauisble...There were no major events to cause such a shift...

6) What I suspect Zogby did is change his methodology after the DMR poll and others started predicting a very different outcome...Now he gets to look like an hero...


BOTTOM LINE- IMHO, ZOGBY CHANGED HIS METHODOLOGY AFTER HE SAW THE DMR POLL... IT'S IMPLAUSIBLE HILLARY WENT FROM A FOUR POINT LEAD TO A SEVEN POINT DEFICIT IN SIX DAYS! HE'S A CHARLATAN

It seem as though both Dems and Rethugs are counting on the same group to come out and push them over the edge...

If you go to site where polls are dissected he doesn't have a good rep...As soon as the DMR poll came out I knew Zogby would change his numbers... An eleven point shift in six days is not plausible...

I want Edwards or Clinton to win but the evidence suggests they won't...

I hope I am wrong...

This was reported on a blog somehwere so you know it's true.

He also said that Obama said that Paul Wellstone deserved to die.

Nobody is suggesting Zogby's conclusions are wrong...They are challenging the method by which he arrived at his conclusion... Clinton's winning by four points on Sunday in his tracking poll... A DMR poll which is recognized as the "gold standard" comes out Monday night showing Obama winning by four points, and miraculously Zogby shows a tied race on Wednesday and a four point lead for Obama on Thursday...

Naw, Zogby must be doing something shady.

http://www.c-span.org/poll.asp?Cat=Issue&Code=Zogby&ShowVidNum=15&Rot_Cat_CD=Zogby&Rot_HT=206&Rot_WD=&ShowVidDays=365&ShowVidDesc=&ArchiveDays=365

What was the major intervening event?


Perhaps it's the release of the DMR Poll:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07

So for the time period of 12/27 to 12/30 Zogby calls it Clinton -30% Edwards 26% Obama 26%


and for the same time period DMR calls it Obama -32% Clinton 25% and Edwards 24%


They are seeing two fundamentally mentally different races yet now they see the same race...

that independants and some repubs are excited about Obama and they are coming to caucus for him? Is that really too much for some of your brains to grasp?

They don't realize that, in the DMR poll, independant means those that aren't registered as a Democrat or Republican. Many of those indys might actually be Democrats. They just aren't registered as such.