Pollster discusses Iowa caucus poll accuracy

How Accurate Were the Iowa Polls in 2004 and 2000?

Given the way we are scrutinizing the final Iowa Caucus polls, this seems like a good time to take a look a the final pre-caucus polls from 2004 and 2000. One of the questions I get most frequently is which pollsters were "most accurate" in previous years, and as the old data will show, that is a far more difficult question to answer than most people assume.

Consider the final polls for the Democratic Caucuses in 2004. Only five organizations released public polls conducted in the final week before the Caucuses, which were held on Monday, January 19 that year. Since both John Kerry and John Edwards experienced late surges in support, polls conducted before that would show considerably more "error," since they obviously missed the late surge. Also, those who continued to call through Sunday night might have some advantage in catching the late breaking trend (or, as more cynical pollsters will point out, those releasing late polls also had the benefit of seeing the results of the other earlier surveys).

The table below shows the results of the final week's polls, plus the results of the network "entrance poll," which asked participants their first preference as they entered their caucus location.



http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php

I don't think that 2004 is indication of much of anything. The Repubs did not caucus so they came to the Dem caucuses. Their attendance more than doubled the number attending the Dem caucuses over 2000. They voted for the guy they most wanted to see (Kerry) running against their candidate in the general.

I have no idea what will happen tonight but I think that a lot of Repubs who have indicated they will attend Dem caucuses and vote for Obama might just go to their own meetings because the Repub primary has become more interesting. Also, in Iowa I think a lot of the Independents are actually unhappy Repubs and they will caucus and vote for McCain.