Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

New InsiderAdvantage poll confirms Obama surging toward finish

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread		 This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 01:53 PM
Original message
New InsiderAdvantage poll confirms Obama surging toward finish
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 01:54 PM by maximusveritas
The 3 polls that came closest to the final result and picked up on the momentum from Kerry and Edwards in 2004 were the DMR, Zogby, and InsiderAdvantage polls.

All 3 now show Obama surging towards the finish.

The latest is the InsiderAdvantage poll showing Obama gaining significantly.
PDF link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_OpinionFinal_DEM_Iowa_Poll.pdf

This is the result after reallocating second-choice support:
Obama 34 (25) +9
Edwards 33 (41) -8
Clinton 32 (34) -2
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
1. Well once again, I seem to choose an underdog (according to the MSM)
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 01:58 PM by 48percenter
But I will be happy if Obama stomps Clinton. :hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. She'll be stopped.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Justyce Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. This shows them all within 1 point of each other -- I don't think anyone's
guaranteed a win just yet...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. Men seem undersampled in that poll
and perhaps not enough independents.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. No, about the same percentage of men as every other poll
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:15 PM by maximusveritas
If anything it might be oversampled.

You might be right about independents. Some polls have a much higher percentage.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. But don't more men attend the caucus? nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Nope, women made up 54% in 2004
It might be even higher this time if Hillary is successful in turning out her target voters.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
5. Yeah because Insider Advantage got it right in 2004 (sarcasm)
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:05 PM by FreeState
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. They show Kerry winning, which is what happened if you remember
And they also picked up on Edwards surging, but just not enough.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Yes and no
It show Kerry off a bit compared to how the others gained. However, and this bodes well for your candidate, almost everyone believes Edwards surge was due to Kucinich having his supporters pick him as their second choice.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Are you joking? Kucinich never had much more than 1%
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:26 PM by Quixote1818
His numbers would hardly impact anyone even if all 1% went to one candidate. Are you saying the reason Edwards surged by 12% came from the 1% of Kucinich supporters? Thats impossible.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Link for you
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php

Most observers attribute much of the six-point gain for Edwards to a deal struck on caucus morning between the Kucinich and Edwards campaigns that sent most Kucinich supporters into the Edwards camp on the second round. Exit pollster Joe Lenski reports that most Kucinich supporters chose Edwards as their second choice in the entrance poll.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. He had 4% in the entrance poll n /t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. Looks like Insider Advantage did the best
Everyone else had Gephardt doing much better accept Survey USA but they blew Kerry's numbers worse than everyone. Insider Advantage listed 23% as Undecided and it looks like the undecideds split between Kerry and Edwards.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. DM Register actually was closest for Kerry
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:30 PM by FreeState
the others were a little out of line though.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jpljr77 Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
6. Sorry to do this, but why do pollsters, the media, DU....
assume that non-viable candidates' constituents will just automatically throw their support to another candidate? I know a great number will, but don't you think many will remain with their original choice (Kucinich, Biden, etc.) so that their vote is counted? Especially in the case of Kucinich.

I just don't get the mass assumption that Edwards, Clinton, and Obama vote percentages will equal, or nearly equal, 100%. I think it's going to be more like 85%.

Remember, this is the first vote in the primary. It's not like people have to live with a Pub if their candidate isn't "viable" in the first go-around.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Because You Have To Receive 15% At Any Caucus Site To Get Delegates
Most pollsters expect the second tier candidates not to receive 15% at any caucus site...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
chascarrillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Not realistic, imo
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:16 PM by chascarrillo
There will be a number precincts where a candidate other than Obama/Clinton/Edwards will be viable and will get delegates. The contrary is not statistically possible.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jpljr77 Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. I agree with this
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 02:24 PM by jpljr77
Furthermore, in the case of Kucinich (and I'm not picking on him, I just think his supporters are different), people will maintain their vote position simply to register their support with him...whether delegates are rewarded or not.

But as for the actual delegate percentage awarded to the candidates, I still think more than 1 or 2% of caucuses will have "second-tier" candidates in that 15% range, thus throwing of the 34%/33%/32% assumed balance.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Thats correct. The 04 numbers confirm this. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
7. 2004 The 3 polls that came closest to the final result .......
"Closest"? I don't think so. Depends on what the meaning of "closest" is....... Take a look:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu May 16th 2024, 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC