8 Questions Iowa Could Answer

WP: 8 Questions Iowa Could Answer
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 3, 2008; A10

1) Will Either Race End in Iowa?

The only race that could is in the Democratic Party and only if Hillary Clinton wins a big victory. Iowa has proved resistant to the Clinton brand, and she has struggled there throughout the year. But her final days of campaigning have been solid, and a victory, no matter how narrow, would be a big boost for her. Barack Obama has plenty of money to keep going, whatever the outcome. If he wins or there is any kind of a muddled finish on the Democratic side, the battle goes to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. An Edwards victory here guarantees the race continues; he has been trailing in New Hampshire and lags both Clinton and Obama in money....

2) How Big Will the Iowa Bounce Be?

The big difference this year is the shortened time between Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primaries. Normally eight days, it will be just five this time, thanks to the decision by New Hampshire Secretary of State William M. Gardner to schedule New Hampshire so soon after Iowa. The bounce, say experts, usually shows up a couple of days after Iowa and then begins to dissipate. A clean Obama victory over Clinton and Edwards would become a very big story and would dominate the news into the weekend debates....

3) Is This Process Defensible?

Some political strategists found this question too hot to handle, not wanting to offend Iowans but not enamored of a process in which fewer than 200,000 Democrats and fewer than 100,000 Republicans will participate. Add to that the fact that the state is largely white and rural -- and the absence of one-person, one-vote rules on the Democratic side -- and the caucuses attract even more critics. Some Democrats also believe the caucus electorate is too left-leaning for the party's good. As one strategist put it, "The only time Democrats have nominated a candidate who won the White House since 1976 was the year everyone skipped Iowa." That was in 1992, when all other candidates deferred to home-state Sen. Tom Harkin's presidential bid. Harkin won Iowa handily, and Clinton went on to become the party's nominee and president....

4) Which Candidate Will Turn Out the Most First-Time Caucus Participants?

Lots of candidates for this award, but the consensus among strategists in Iowa and elsewhere is that Obama will draw the most newcomers. "He has lit a fire among many younger voters and those on the fringes of political activism that is unprecedented in recent years," one GOP strategist said. Certainly the Des Moines Register's final poll suggested that was the case. More than 70 percent of Obama's supporters in the Register poll said they had not gone to a caucus in the past -- well above the percentages for Clinton and Edwards....

5) Who Was the Most Effective Celebrity Surrogate?...

6) If Edwards or Huckabee Win, What Is Their Second Act?

"They don't have one," one Democratic strategist said. That's an extreme view and one not shared by many others, but it goes to the heart of the challenge both Edwards and Huckabee will face even if they win Iowa....

7) Will Women Prove to Be Hillary Clinton's Secret Weapon?...

8) Can Evangelical Christians Carry the Day in Iowa?...

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