Will relying on the youth vote burn Obama?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/02/AR2008010203372.html?nav=rss_print/asection

"On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Barack Obama decided to start the polling early.

"How many people are first-time caucusgoers?" he asked a boisterous and youthful crowd of 1,400 overflowing from a hotel ballroom here near the University of Iowa.

Nearly two-thirds raised their hands.

"There've been a lot of discussions among the pundits lately, because they don't think you're gonna show up," the candidate teased.

Boos from the crowd.

"Are you gonna prove them wrong?" he asked. Big cheer. "I can't hear you!" Bigger cheer. "Are you gonna show up for caucus or not?" Biggest cheer.

But at the student sign-in table outside the ballroom -- "Be awesome: Caucus for Obama!!!" urged the handwritten sign -- the numbers gave less cause for enthusiasm. Eighty-one students signed a list proclaiming themselves uncertain about caucusing or ineligible to vote. And how many filled out cards promising to attend Thursday's caucuses? A grand total of -- drumroll, please -- nine".

that would be 9....Nine...

They're so hot! ;)

imo. I know KO likes him, but I don't.

be on snark overload and like to look down on all the 'little people'. That's my impression anyway.

"be on snark overload and like to look down on all the 'little people'"

It can be hard to understand the nuances of deficit and economy, but when it comes down to things like torture you don't have to be an old policy wonk to have an opinion. Whether they will back Obama in the end is the real question.

edit: A really good indicator of this is Google news. They rank news stories based on popularity, and primary issues are consistently at the top. Combine this with the youthful demographic that makes up net users and you have the picture.

The media just isn't telling you about that. And he does fine among older voters as well. He really doesn't need a massive youth vote to win.

He's neck and neck with Clinton. The new voter turnout may not be as high as some polls have it, but it doesn't have to be for Obama to pull this off.

I think a lot of this is rationalization in case Hillary comes in 3rd place.

I'm 60 years old, for an example of one. But he does well in polling of later boomers, too.

other than some perceived 'coolness' factor. He hasn't really impressed my teen daughters nor their friends with anything that particarly relevant to their life. But he appeals in that rock star capacity. I have also yet to find anyone that supports him that can clearly outline his plans, or his strengths, beyond being popular.

I'm a "youth" (21-years-old), and I just don't get it.

But youth seem to be idealistic and maybe they see someone who will unite our country instead of continue the bickering and bashing that the Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush years has shown is counter-productive.

I heard an interview on the radio today with a first-time caucusgoer who was supporting Obama. She was in her 70s.

She's probably not alone: a lot of first-time caucusers in 2004 were over 18, too. Don't forget, 30% of the population in 2004 didn't vote-- 50% in 2000.

They said only a quarter million people of the 3 million eligible voters in Iowa typically vote.

I was astounded by that figure. I would think a fringe candidate could do great in Iowa. If all these non-voters really aren't voting because they want a Kucinich or Ron Paul, then they'd only have to get 1 in 10 of them to actually caucus and blow out the competition.

nt

For one thing, it strikes me that Dean in 04 had more youth-buzz than Obama does in 08, and it didn't help Dean, did it?

For another thing, people look at Obama, a fine candidate in many ways, and get lulled by his marketing ability. It is a well-known cliche at this point that presidential candidates are "sold" to us like soap flakes (or any other product.) In the vast world of marketing/advertising, youth appeal is the ne plus ultra of success: everyone wants to skew young, because young people spend more frivolously, and because if you hook a young person to your brand, you might have a new customer for life (older folks' brand preferences are already set.)

So if this campaign in Iowa and elsewhere was selling anything else - ipods, jeans, the latest movie, SUVs, cheese-crust pizza, etc. etc. Obama would beat Hillary, Edwards et al in a landslide. But the presidential "product" is a unique one -- it's the exception that proves the general rule. When it comes to voting (rather than spending/consuming) it's the oldsters who leave the young folks in the dust. When it comes to politics, you want to "skew old."

on his Charisma and personality and as such more or less lost sight at how good he is at organizing and planning

To steal what somebody on Daily Kos said: Most battles are won or lost before they are even fought because one side has done a better job of organizing for the battle. Passion counts for little if you haven't done the necessary organizing and preparation.

And I would expect that that would be true. However, what if Obama actually pulled off a youth vote in Iowa? That would be a GOOD THING for the Democratic Party and perhaps a harbinger of what is to come.

A new transformational election for a generation of Democratic presidents.....

...the age division is 18-40 and 40+.

other candidates. Actually he has 50% of his support from people who have caucused before as opposed to Hilary's 40%.

We'll see what happens...