NH may vote for Clinton to spite their nose at Iowa and to give us a race
If Hillary wins NH, then we have an epic primary fight that may go to Feb. 5th and beyond. If not, it could all be over very soon thanks to the compressed primary.
-- before SC -- where Hillary is leading by twenty points at least. If she pulls out a razor thin win in NH, wins NV handily, then it may be an easier get for her to win SC by a percentage point or two. I don't believe either NH or SC will be "big" wins percentage point wise for anyone. It's going to be close down to the wire.
2. To win NH, she would have to do well with Independents
which isn't her strong suit so far. She came in 3rd amoung Indies in Iowa, and has never polled favorably with them. She can't win NH with Democrat support alone and you know that. Funny thing is, I fear Edwards more now in NH than I do Hillary.
have "strongly" made up their minds and are "extremely" unlikely to change them between now and Primary Day, so I don't know if the end result will swing that far away from what the latest Polls (anywhere from 4 to 12 points in Hillary's favor with Edwards a distant 3rd anywhere from 15 to 20%) are currently saying.
It'll be interesting, that much I know for sure. :-)
And I am a (soft) Obama supporter. I really want to see a race this time around. I want to see it fought out in a lot of states for a long time. Because I think, in the end, that will be best for the nominee and the Party.
NH always seems to like mavericks in these primaries. The Clinton regime is dead. Obama has all of the energy and momemtum on his side. People want something new and the Clinton campaign isn't going to be able to convince them to eat warmed up leftovers. If Clinton has a shot in NH, she's going to have to out-organize Obama by a significant margin and hope that turnout is low. She should be praying for bad weather on the day of the NH primary.
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