4 latest NH polls (from the different firms doing them)

rinsd

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:41 PM
Original message

4 latest NH polls (from the different firms doing them)

Poll	     Date	Sample	      Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden	Spread
RCP Average	12/27 - 01/03	-	33.8	27.3	17.8	6.0	2.5	Clinton +6.5
Suffolk/WHDH	01/02 - 01/03	500 LV	37	25	15	4	2	Clinton +12.0
Zogby Tracking	12/31 - 01/03	960 LV	32	26	20	7	2	Clinton +6.0
Franklin Pierce	12/27 - 12/31	403 LV	32	28	19	8	3	Clinton +4.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH	12/27 - 12/30	521 LV	34	30	17	5	3	Clinton +4.0

These are all before Iowa but this should give us a baseline to see what changes happen (though the Zogby & Suffolk are tracking polls that bleed into caucus day when it was widely speculated Obama would win.) Obviously Biden voters will allocate themselves to another candidate.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:42 PM
Response to Original message

1. As Long As There Aren't Any Polls From ARG

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

rinsd

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Irony being that ARG is right in line

Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 02:44 PM by rinsd

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 36% to 28%, with 17% for John Edwards. Among women, Clinton leads Obama 41% to 26%, with 14% for Edwards. Obama has regained the lead among undeclared (independent) voters with 37%, followed by Clinton at 25% and Edwards at 19%.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

debatepro

(683 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:43 PM
Response to Original message

2. Suffolk poll

is clearly the outlier

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

0007

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #2

9. Good analogy. Are you a geologist?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

goldcanyonaz

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:45 PM
Response to Original message

4. Don't they actually vote in New Hampshire? And not caucus like in Iowa?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

rinsd

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #4

6. NH is a standard primary. Nevada does a caucus though

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ccpup

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #6

10. and Hillary is currently

up 27 to 20 points, depending on the Poll.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

MadBadger

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #10

11. Actually, the ARG poll has her up 27 and the Mason Dixon has her up only 8.

The RCP average is 20. But those polls were also taken a month ago.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ccpup

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #11

18. you're right

they were taken a month ago -- most recent ones I found, so perhaps there will be a new one very soon? --, but I think Obama just opened an office there, so there might be some ground for him to make up. I do expect those numbers to tighten, but I don't anticipate her losing the State in the end.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

MadBadger

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #18

21. I think she will squeak by

But that could be because I havent seen new numbers in such a long time. I think Obama wins NH and for now I think he loses by 1 or 2 to Hillary in Nevada. Then they move to SC where he will beat her by 15 points.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ccpup

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #4

8. that's correct

it is a vote in a private booth and not a public caucus like Iowa was.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ccpup

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:46 PM
Response to Original message

5. no matter which way you slice or dice it

NH is going to be close and may not, in the end, really decide anything!

Still have NV on the 19th and SC on the 26th, -- with Super Tuesday literally around the corner -- so the race is far from over.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

skipos

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:47 PM
Response to Original message

7. My money is on Obama. Those aren't great numbers for Hillary

for being BEFORE she got spanked in Iowa.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

GalleryGod

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #7

12. More importantly they don't poll independents...

She better get out to a 5 point lead at least by the time the polls open.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

rinsd

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #12

20. Except they do poll independents.

Check the links listed here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

jenmito

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #20

23. Obama's beating Hillary among NH Independents 37% to 24% according to

a LA Times/Bloomberg poll just shown on MSNBC taken Dec. 20-23rd. I'm sure that will increase now.

He's also winning according to intrade at about 69.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

HeraldSquare212

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:53 PM
Response to Original message

13. So there's a 1 to 3.5% / 7% to 10% spread?

Putting aside the outlier and assuming a 3-4% margin of error? Is that how you would read that?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

antiimperialist

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:53 PM
Response to Original message

14. All these polls are before news of Obama's victory spread to the public n/t

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

mckara

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:53 PM
Response to Original message

15. Hillary is Going DOWN!!!!!!!

n/t

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

RoveRage

(322 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:53 PM
Response to Original message

16. Yup, this is going to be really interesting.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

jenmito

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:54 PM
Response to Original message

17. All taken before Obama's big win in IA.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

rinsd

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #17

19. Hence the qualifier "All these were taken before IA"

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

jenmito

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Jan-04-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #19

22. Good point!

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DU AdBot (1000+ posts)

Thu May 16th 2024, 02:43 AM
Response to Original message

Advertisements [?]

Top

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.