What would a loss in NH mean for John Edwards?

Colobo

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:00 PM
Original message

Poll question: What would a loss in NH mean for John Edwards?

Please comment.

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Colobo

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:04 PM
Response to Original message

1. Vote.

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Catch22Dem

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:05 PM
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2. He hasn't been polling very high in NH all year...

So anything that is a significant jump above his trends over the past several months is a win for him. I don't think he has put a lot of eggs in the NH basket. I think he's going to significantly better than he has been polling lately, so I think he'll be fine coming out of NH.

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geek tragedy

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:05 PM
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3. He's toast if he doesn't take a strong second. n/t

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regnaD kciN

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:06 PM
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4. Hard to say...

...because I don't know anyone who seriously thinks Edwards could win outright in N.H.

I think most people would consider a "win" for him a close third, or even a surprise second-place finish. A loss would be finishing far behind the top two, say Obama 35% - Clinton 32% - Edwards 11%.

I think that, if he "lost" in that sense, it would probably be the end for him as a serious candidate, although I could see him staying in the race through South Carolina.

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MadBadger

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:06 PM
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5. For Edwards, a loss doesnt mean a non-first place finish.

Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 10:07 PM by hnmnf

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slick8790

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:06 PM
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6. Depends on what you mean by loss.

He's been polling 3rd pretty consistently all year. If he pulls a strong third or somehow ties for 2nd, then that's a win in my book. A distant third is a pretty big setback, and a 4th place showing (extremely unlikely) would be fatal.

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Commie Pinko Dirtbag

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:07 PM
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7. Depends. If it ends up Clinton-Edwards-Obama, with Edwards a close second...

I would think Edwards still very viable.

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Uncle Sinister

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:08 PM
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8. Kinda depends on what type of "loss"

He's NOT going to win in NH, despite my wet dreams to the contrary. Personally, I'd consider a strong 2nd a HUGE bump up for him. A "weak" 2nd, like Iowa, is a wash, third would hurt, but not terribly. He doesn't give a damn about the pundits or polls, and neither do most of his supporters.

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Capn Sunshine

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:10 PM
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9. He gave a statement that he's in it until the convention

so mazel tov, I say. Certainly his message should be incorporated into the Party Platform, if I have anything to say about it.

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femmocrat

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. Yes! I was very relieved to hear that today.

Hang in there, John!

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Freddie Stubbs

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:38 PM
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11. He doesn't need to win, but

If he doesn't come in second or very close to second he is in big trouble.

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Hekate

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:39 PM
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12. self delete--

Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 10:42 PM by Hekate

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skipos

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:53 PM
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13. Well, he is a distant 3rd IN ALL THE POLLS OF (currently) RELEVANT STATES

How anyone can think it is a minor setback is beyond me. He has no safety net. He is even 3rd in SC, which he won in 2004.

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karynnj

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Sun Jan-06-08 11:11 PM
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14. It would be a darker version of 2004

In 2004, he was second to John Kerry, this time he was a slightly further behind second. In NH, he was tied for third with 12% with Clark - to Kerry's 45 and Dean's 30.

What could be incredibly different is SC - that he won last time with over 40% of the vote. That was not enough then and he will likely do far worse this year in his native state. Nevada comes in between, but that is not suppose to be a win.

He has said he will stay in until the convention, but if he loses everything before Super Tuesday, it's not clear how he gets the money to compete.

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