Don't have much time to post today, but let me just say Barack Obama is Karl Rove's worst nightmare.

1. Independent voters

2. New voters...and the young will vote in droves this time

3. We take the South...and everything else


Game. Set. Match.

does turd blossom still matter ?

Rove has to be ecstatic that the 2008 election is now being reframed around changing the race of the president rather than Republican failure.

But both of those states were won by Gore in 2000, and are not as conservative-leaning as the rest.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Hey, hear about that caucus a couple days ago?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

And that's all he needs to do, because he won't lose any of the states that Kerry won.

:toast:

get my hopes up. Obama has never run an election against a real republican before.

And Karl Rove is shitting himself in excitement

John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton can ALL three win.

As far as winning the South, I think at least Obama and Edwards will try and compete there as the nominee. Clinton, not so sure. She's running a traditional campaign, and I think especially James Carville and Terry McAuliffe will tell her to stick to fighting to win all the Kerry/Gore states and focusing on Florida and Ohio like we did in 2004. Who knows though.

he'll need. And not everyone is like you. Thankfully.

It's rarely been done. JFK's election was so close to going the other way in 1960.
Senators have a huge obstacle to overcome. It gets in the way of what their message is.

Because he's speaking about hope, and inspiring people again. He was talking about how Senator Obama really appeals to independents and moderate Republicans. And his message of hope and change sticks with voters. We know that from the results in Iowa.

He's in the driver seat to win New Hampshire and South Carolina. Then he's in a good position to win the nomination. If he's our nominee, he'll be tough to beat. The main two issues he'll be hit on are his experience, and obviously behind the scenes and in quiet...his race. I think the mostly white Iowa voting for him shows race isn't as big of an issue anymore, even though the GOP will still try. And the experience shit is interesting. Obama's been effective in playing that out as a strength, saying Cheney had plenty of experience in Washington--but that doesn't mean anything. He can play that out as a strength.

Bill Clinton showed in 1992, hope and change sell.

People are so turned off after eight years of Bush, his case will be even more appealing now.

post, Kerry..Edwards did great last night and I hope he does really well on Tuesday.

And watch the media help the GOP at crucial moments to raise doubts about our candidate among independents and conservative Democrats. Watch the media spearhead GOP GOTV as well.

Romney is already using Obama to scare PuKKKes.

Bush* was a congressman, then a two-term governor of a state in which the governorship was mainly a PR position. The State of Texas is actually run by the Lieutenant Governor. The legislature only met a few months out of the year and the daily operations of the State were actually conducted by Bush*s number 2. Bush* was utterly unprepared to assume the Presidency of the United States, yet many Republicans still stand by their man. I think if that is the political sword by which Republicans think Obama will die in the campaign, the Dems should make chronic reference to the inexperience of Bush when he took office.*

He ran and lost.

Used to know this stuff on his history front to back, but I guess I am slipping. I remember he lost the first race, but figured he must have sprung into the governorship from someplace other than the oil fields....

Karl Rove is probably the LEAST scary man on the planet.

Stop being scared of Karl Rove. Right now.

:rofl:

Obama will have the money to respond to Rovian or Swiftboat-style attacks and will probably not wait.

However.

More stuff that the hate machine can throw at him will stick in the minds of certain bigoted voters.

I like Edwards' chances of surviving the storm better.

if Obama gets the nomination?

Maybe we should start a betting pool.

:toast:

A slight uptick in young voters and independents means we win. Dare I say handily?

I'm dubious about southern states though. It seems unlikely.

But if the GOP puts up a loser like Romney... who knows.

assumed they'd be opposing Hillary. They've put all kinds of energy and research and effort and ad campaigns and buzz phrase work and psy ops into that. They were not prepared for this. It will take some time and effort to move the aircraft carrier around. And by the time they get it where they think they're gonna want it, the momentum may well be impossible to beat. If Obama continues on this kind of roll he just might be unbeatable. Don't forget the PERCEPTION - the Perception Thing. When you start lining up newly enthusiastic and empowered, enfranchised young people and independents in droves, that's compelling. There will come a critical mass point where more people who might already be predisposed towards making election history this year (first woman president, first African-American president, first Hispanic-American president - SOME sort of really significant breakage of the glass ceiling) will decide The Time Has Finally Come. And they'll side with the perceived winner - who now is starting to look like The Man from Illinois. Historic indeed.

I think there'll come a time, IF this keeps up, when a sense of history may start to take over. First, everyone wants to side with a winner. As Obama starts looking more and more like one, more of them will line up behind him. And then, I think, there'll be a moment where people start making up their minds and realizing - "hey, we have the first chance EVER to elect a person of color to the highest office in the land. The first time ever! Hmmm... that would be something one might decide he or she would want to be able to tell their grandchildren about, someday. Hedge their bets on a history-making moment. I mean, how would YOU feel, 20, 30, however many years from now, when whatever survivors of this era remain, and we're telling the story of "the moment" when America was presented with the opportunity to elect The First Black President. Who won't want to be able to stand up and say they were part of that. "Yep. I, too, cast a vote for The First Black President. I remember that day. That was a VERY momentous day." The whole "what did you do in THAT election, daddy?" "Where were you when The First Black President in American History was elected?" There'll come a point where that will itch in the back of an awful lot of people's minds, and they're not going to want to look back and say they passed that moment up. The ego will kick in. Everyone will want to step up and say they were part of that historic moment, and that they were part of that change.

Just my opinion, but I think that's going to be an "X-factor" that will be operating here. People are now favorably predisposed to the notion of such a momentous change that it breaks a glass ceiling. Women have already done it in the past year - with the first female Speaker of the House. That kind of seismic political change has already entered the mix. It's no longer unthinkable because we're already in that mode, as is. And this last debate - in New Hampshire - showed it glaringly. Six of the same kind of white guys, six of the same suit-types, on the Dark Side. Snow White and the Five Cookie Cutters (especially since that doofus alan keyes wasn't on the dais, and was never taken seriously as a candidate anyway). But on OUR side, yes - a white guy, but also a woman, an African-American, a Hispanic-American - all up there together as equals. WE are the ones who embody the new century. WE are the ones who embody ALL of America. You can tell who's the big-tent party, the party of inclusion, the party of democracy, just by looking at us.

Once most of the horse-race handicapping is over because the competition narrows down on both sides, I think this is going to be more on everyone's minds - maybe even than they consciously realize.

Are they buddies? Did he take Rove's advice?

Shortly after his election to the Senate.