SIMPLE MATH (?)

Well, simple for me, but attack it if you want.

For the majority of Kucinich supporters, Edwards is their second choice.
For the majority of Biden, Dodd & Richardson supporters, it's really up in the air.
For the majority of Obama supporters, Edwards is their second choice.
For the majority of Edwards supporters, Obama is their second choice.
For the majority of Clinton supporters, second choice is about evenly split for Edwards and Obama (probably more for Edwards due to hard feelings about the Clinton/Obama feud).

In other words, Clinton is not the second choice of many people. I personally am starting to see a scenario where none of the three gains a majority of delegates or concedes till the convention. But look, it has to be one of those three at this point. If Edwards were eliminated or dropped out, clearly Obama would be the nominee. If Obama were eliminated or dropped out, his supporters would flock to Edwards. If Clinton were eliminated or dropped out, who knows what would happen.

Those are the most likely scenarios, and under none of the three does Hillary Clinton win the nomination.

That's the way I see it. Not being gleeful or trying to persuade anyone of anything here really.. just saying, I don't see how Hillary wins the nomination.

Or is Obama in that category as well?

Money factors into the stying power of a candidate in ahuge way.

I've heard of them but not done much real study of them 'cause usually it doesn't matter. And are you assuming they'll do the bidding of the DLC or is that just the way it goes?

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

including the current synopsis of who they each are supporting.

Basically the DNC wants to be in control of the election process, not totally trusting the "people", so they created superdelegates. All current Democratic members of Congress, Democratic Governors, and former Dem Presidents, VP's, and Dem Congressional leaders get to cast a vote.

The numbers - according to wikipedia "The Democratic National Convention, where the Democratic presidential ticket is formally agreed upon, has 796 superdelegates. Superdelegates to the Democratic Convention include all Democratic members of the United States Congress, various additional elected officials, as well as members of the Democratic National Committee.

A candidate needs a simple majority of the combined delegate and superdelegate votes to secure the nomination. Democratic delegates from state caucuses and primaries number 3,253. This means that the total number of votes is 4,049. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025. Superdelegates account for approximately one fifth (19.7%) of all votes at the convention. Delegates chosen in the Democratic caucuses and primaries account for about four fifths (80.3%) of the Democratic convention delegates."

They are not bound to their declared candidate and can change their vote anytime they want to. The only time they would matter is when the election is close and a brokered convention takes place. That hasn't happened in something like 40 years and it certainly won't happen this time around.

And notwithstanding the post above, I think superdelegates do matter a little when it's close (as it is right now).

Simple math getting less simple:

Let's say for the sake of argument that momentum meant nothing (something I don't believe) - If Obama got 40% of all the state delegates, Clinton got 35%, and Edwards got 20%, their totals would be:

Obama 1280
Clinton 1120
Edwards 640

With 2026 (?) needed for the nomination.

Let's say for the sake of argument (again something I don't believe) that Superdelegates were not fickle, that momentum meant nothing, and that the same percentage of Superdelegates that are currently supporting Clinton, Obama, and Edwards continued.

Then among superdelegates you'd get these totals:

Obama 228
Clinton 525
Edwards 89

Under the above scenario you'd have the following totals:

Obama 1508
Clinton 1645
Edwards 729

Clinton would then need to somehow obtain approximately 53% of Edwards' delegates to win.
Again, this entire scenario is unlikely in my opinion. But if it happened, Clinton would have a good shot at it. Still, knowing as I do that the majority of Edwards supporters would move to Obama I don't see it happening for her under the best of scenarios (and I think the above scenario is possibly pretty close to her best case scenario.)

I'm still sending Dennis money and hoping he continues to get his message out. However, I *MAY* decide to vote for either Obama or Edwards when the Ohio primary rolls around.

are mathmatically challenged might not understand, but I think I do......Edwards is in a strong place to receive Kucinich, Obama, or 1/2 of Clinton's supporters. Biden, Dodd, and Richardson are questionable. I hope my understanding is'nt a bit to hasting in assuming everyone will fall away from the race and Leave Edwards.