Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions

antiimperialist

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:42 PM
Original message

Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions

The NY Times called Intrade "remarkably clairvoyant."

Excerpt from this 2007 NY Times article:

It has also been remarkably clairvoyant. Heading into the 2004 presidential election, Intrade�s odds correctly forecast the outcome in all 50 states. The 2008 election is far enough in the future that the current odds probably aren�t as telling. But they are still worth considering, especially because early odds have had a better forecasting record than early polls in recent years, says Mr. Wolfers, who spends much of his time studying prediction markets.

Now, I give you Intrade's final NH predictions:

Obama: 92
Clinton: 5
Edwards: 2

On the Republican side:
McCain: 76
Romney: 20
Huckabee: 1

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=483463

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BootinUp

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message

1. Seriously?

those predictions really suck imho.

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ButterflyBlood

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Those aren't percentages of votes predicted

Edited on Mon Jan-07-08 11:44 PM by ButterflyBlood

It's the percentage chance of that candidate winning.

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Bullet1987

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. That's what I was about to say...it's a % of chance...not votes

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1620rock

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:44 PM
Response to Original message

3. Stick a fork in us...we're done.

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abburdlen

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:45 PM
Response to Original message

4. that's chance to win right?

not the percentage of votes they'll get right?

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antiimperialist

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. That's correct

When it's said that Intrade correctly predicted an event it means that most people predicted this outcome. 92% of not the % of votes Obama will get, but the % pf people who pick him to win it.

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ButterflyBlood

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:51 PM
Response to Original message

7. And also note...

Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008: 62
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008: 37
The Field (Any Other candidate) to Win 2008: 1.9

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antiimperialist

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. Well, that can change

I guess the final prediction is what is taken into account. In NH, for example, predictions are very unlikely to change because the elections are tomorrow. For the GE however, there are months left ahead.

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skipos

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Tue Jan-08-08 12:02 AM
Response to Original message

9. Just so you know, intrade did not predict the 2006 Dem landslide. nt

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antiimperialist

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Tue Jan-08-08 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #9

10. But it predicted every 2006 individual senate race correctly

http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/02/were-the-intrade-prediction-markets-on-the-november-2006s-senate-elections-accurate/

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skipos

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Tue Jan-08-08 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #10

11. It didn't predict the Dems winning the senate, I am sure of it.

I bet on that sight. It really isn't always predictive, just reactive. A few short days ago, Hillary was significantly favored to win the nomination.

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antiimperialist

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Tue Jan-08-08 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #11

12. when it comes to individual races, 100 out of 100

Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 09:41 AM by antiimperialist

not bad, is it.

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skipos

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Tue Jan-08-08 11:44 PM
Response to Original message

13. As I said before Intrade is reactive more than predictive.

Do you believe me now?

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