Bloomberg's Rationale Is Vanishing Into Thin Air With Obama Surge

Bloomberg is my mayor. I like my mayor. But he is seriously kidding himself if he thinks anyone would look forward to a potential run, except maybe media people who want better horse race stories to keep them from doing actual journalism.

Bloomberg's tone of bipartisanship is welcome, but Obama already has it pretty well covered. I'd welcome Bloomberg on the bottom of the ticket, but there's no room on the top.

End of story for Mike...at some level, he may even be relieved.

Manhattan. Did either one of them ever say anything about that day?

I posted elsewhere a relevant quote related to yesterday Oklahoma forum, here it is again


http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2008/01/08/news/politics/doc4782c97de9abc867071003.txt

AFAIK Nunn was/is one of those pusing the idea of a Bloomberg candidacy, and was even mentioned as a potential VP.

I don't see it quite the same way...

I consider Bloomberg to be the "deciding" factor in 2008 and as a New Yorker... it's hard not to notice the reality of his run if you pick up local newspapers (he's RUNNING). Every time he says "i'm not a candidate" in the national press, his top aides go to local press and explicitly say he's going to run... but "after watching the primaries." Let's not be naive.

Quite the opposite of your assessment, however, he's capable of destroying Obama's chances.

Sure, maybe they can snag him as a VP candidate but i don't think that plays well. Bloomberg isn't going to be about winning for his own political gain. I think he'll run sincerely to change america. However, that means he enters effectively to spoil the election.

Indeed, if the Dem ticket has Obama or Hillary, then it inevitably spoils it for the dems.

Bloomberg can and will snag upwards of 20% of the vote from the middle, including all those who are fiscal/government conservatives but lean left on social issues. That's a LOT of republicans, independents AND democrats that he can sway.

The good thing is that this would force both parties to woo the center rather than woo the extremes. I just believe that in the end this would hurt the Obama ticket. It's POSSIBLE that this could literally put an end to the GOP as we know it, if it stirs up a huge buzz about a new party. That's very possible, honestly. If the buzz going into Nov was basically that the GOP was dead and a new centrist party was needed... this could still get Obama elected. I wouldn't bank on that.

but I think that Obama's surge changes the picture significantly. Of course it is still early and nothing is set in stone yet.

Bloomberg might siphon off enough votes to allow Huckabee to win. That's the only way I can imagine Huckabee winning. Provided he can win the nomination, which I think is still unlikely.

He arrived here for what seemed like it could be a big moment. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, eyeing a third-party presidential bid, joined Republican and Democratic elders at a forum to denounce the extreme partisanship of Washington and plot how to influence the campaign.

But even as the mayor gathered on Monday with the seasoned Washington hands on the campus of the University of Oklahoma, the surging presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama seemed to steal energy from the event and set off worry elsewhere among Mr. Bloomberg’s supporters.

Mr. Obama has stressed that he wants to move beyond gridlocked politics and usher in an era of national unity. A key organizer of the effort to draft Mr. Bloomberg for a presidential run acknowledged in an interview on Monday that that Mr. Obama’s rise could be problematic.

“Obama is trying to reach out to independent voters, and that clearly would be the constituency that Mike Bloomberg would go after,” said Andrew MacRae, who heads the Washington chapter of Draft Mike Bloomberg for President 2008. “An Obama victory does not make it impossible, but it certainly makes it more difficult.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/us/politics/08bloomberg.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

NH & Iowa aren't the standard primary format.

In states where he's stuck with the Dem registered base, he has to keep winning. More to the point, he also has to drag in massive independent support and build on that for his "electability" argument.

If these 2 things continue through Feb 5th, then it is possible Bloomy won't run.

I think Bloomberg will run anyways, especially if somebody like Mccain runs against Obama. I think the NYTimes and others are entirely missing the point here and trying to interject their own sensibilities around Obama rather than to take a step back and consider that Obama does NOT represent all independents.

It's a HUGE leap to suggest Obama's surge represents mainstream moderates and independents. While the Obama camp and those pushing for pro-independent messages will wish to insinuate that leap... it's way too early to make the leap.

Someone who's dead center, nonideological; not a liberal nor a conservative and can tap into the vast center. That's the card that Bloomberg is going to play.

He'll get some disaffected Democrats who don't like Obama's lack of substance.