What States Do You See Obama NOT Winning In, As In "No Way In Hell"?

Anyone?

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Florida has went Democratic once since 1976...

Georgia has went Democratic once since 1976...

Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee have went Democratic twice since 1976 with two southerners on the ticket...

Al Gore, a southerner lost every southern state except Florida*...

and that was in the 64 democratic landslide.

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I dont think Florida is in play though, especially with the controversy there.

It's a purple state....

Clinton won it..Gore won it*...Kerry made a credible showing...

There is an organization that calls itself the "FLorida Democratic Party," sure. And the Washington Generals were a genuine basketball team that always just happened to lose to the Harlem Globetrotters.

Florida's Democrats are a bunch of good ol' boy layabouts, none of them supporting anything like positions you'd expect from Democrats, and bending over for their masters in the Florida Republican Party. That's why they're attacking Dean, for daring to discipline them for breaking the rules - on Republican order.

Sorry, but Florida does not count.

He'll be strong in the entire south for the primary.

most of them in the general election.

1. Drop gun control from the platform

2. Advocate revisiting NAFTA and GATT/ come up with a very solid plan to increase blue collar and farming opportunity

The south was the base for the Democratic party before the party was taken over by the urban intellectual and elite who have completely abandoned the rural blue collar Dems.

The south was the base for the Dems because the Republicans were the party of Lincoln. All the true elections in the south occurred during the democratic primaries, because the democrats always won the actutal election. So there may have been liberal dems in the south but there were also plenty of conservative ones. That all changed with the civil rights act.

You may be right about those changes increasing the dem vote in the south, but the heydey of the democratic south was based on racism. George Wallace was a democrat.

In the Primary I think Obama will carry most of the states, unless there is is a native son or daughter involved. I would imagine that New Mexico will go for its governor. I think someone posted about Ohio possibly going for Edwards. I also think New York will probably go to Clinton.

I'm pretty sure Virginia will go to Obama. Our Governor endorsed him about two months ago and there is a lot of support for him here.

In the general election expect the usual nearly 50-50 split. I actually don't see him winning the general election. We lose Arkansas if we choose him over Clinton. But we might lose that to Huckabee anyway. But we may pick up a surprise state in the south, such as Mississippi if the black vote organzes behind him. I really hope that is the case.

for Obama, or at least the majority won't,,,Most Afr/Amer I know don't vote color,,,Hillary will most probably win Ar. Edwards maybe,,IMHO

that's about it.

Mississipi, Texas, and Alabama come immediately to mind...

Not this year.

I'd like to see research that indicates African Americans don't vote in Southern states in proportion to their population...

a lot more enormous and costly pressure can be put across the board. We have mostly loss by "big state" strategy that did nothing excpet play defense and provide countless giveaways to the GOP strategy. JFK did not expect to swing the South but the black voter turnout in itself, without having to publicly acknowledge for fear of white backlash, was an important part of the strategy. More important than just winning states. With Edwards or Obama we will show up in the South big time, thanks also to Howard Dean and recent successes. That means too that coattails and a landslide swamping into their stronghold will grow the new prez a big mandate for change and less room for the success of fraud.

Pessimism is only warranted in the event of massive GOP fraud. One way to weaken right from the start it is with Obama or Edwards. As long as Bush is in power and the fraud unchecked, you are well allowed to be pessimistic, but don't restrict the burden on the Dems who could win several red states right now without the GOP and media crap.

slime machine knows full well how to play the game. For every new black person that registers to vote they will register a white, hell maybe two.

I'm reminded of the really old Popeye cartoon where somebody convinced Popeye he'd be better off without his spinach.Popeye threw the can away - it landed on the back of a truck and as the truck pulled away, the spinach can called out to Popeye, "You'll be sorry!" I wanted a knife fighter to go against the Republican Slime Machine, but it seems like the Democrats want a pony called "Change," instead.

Don't know if that's enough to sway an election, but it's safe to assume that Obama or Clinton would increase turnout among Blacks.

http://www.eac.gov/clearinghouse/docs/voter-registration-and-turnout-in-federal-elections-by-race_ethnicity-1972.pdf/attachment_download/file

But look at the Magette race in Georgia and the Kirk race in TX... They were both African Americans running for the Senate and were unable to change long established voting patterns...

We'll see...

Much is inferred from Obama's great showing in IA but what is ignored is he ran behind Edwards and Clinton in many rural IA districts...


Are rural Iowans surrogates for white southerners?

We shall learn shortly...

If he wins in NH and Iowa. Its hard to believe he will lose in the states where there population is more and there is more of a minority vote.

With Obama and Edwards off the ballot, Hillary should win.

I'm voting "uncommitted". "My" uncommitted vote goes to Edwards, though the uncommitted votes will be claimed by whoever gets to the press first.

Wisconsin, New York, Mass, Maryland, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Caroline, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, ESPECIALLY FLORIDA WITH ALL THE ELDERS. You know the ones Obama is slurring and slamming. Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo. Utah, Oregon, Washington, California, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arkansas, California damn have I missed any. And I doubt that Oprah will pay to bus all those students back to Iowa because they can't vote in the general election like they did in the caucus.

Oh of course he will take Illinois.

you should make it an OP so we can. :thumbsup:

man, that's harsh.

But his supposition is almost as wrong as Obama sweeping the South...

Unless the Republicans nominate a real loser I see a replay of 00 and 04 with a twist...

FL, OH, VA, IA, NM, CO, will be in play and the Dems will win enough to get a EC win...

Both took a swing left in '06, and most accounts indicate that the trend should continue in '08.

Very insightful, you should make this its own thread.

...

truebrit...truetwit

..you know GA, MO, MS, TN, KS, OK, great bastions of forward thinking liberal intellectuals...

What a base to lose....:eyes:

who hate rural and blue collar Dems. Why do you think we lost in 2000 and 2004? It wasn't because we lost urban centers it is because Al couldn't carry Tenn. because he abandoned the base in his own state. Keep shitting on rural and blue collar Dems and expect more of the same, or drop some of the elitist positions and pick up those votes.

in fact TN, KS, and OK currently have Dem governors, Georgia has its first pug gov. since reconstruction right now. How do you explain that? Could it be that the National Dem party has abandoned the values of rural and blue collar Dems?

...YEEHAW!!!

:rofl:

his elitist point.

...:eyes:

so many Dems want to point to the Pugs as being racist, corporate whores while espousing your bigot views.

...bigotry and homophobia HALF as bad as the south we'll stop being "elitist snobs" m'kay?

:eyes:

Southern Dems have a name, they're called R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N-S....

a sexist, bigot pug not a Dem...oh yea, I forgot the party doesn't need the rural states to win as has been evidenced in the last few election cycles. :dunce:

..:eyes:

NE/ New England - he'd probably take everything except possibly New Hampshire, which can be kind of libertarian-twitchy. In fact, I was amazed that Kerry actually carried the state in the general in 04.

SE - Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee - reliably, reflexively Republican states.

Midwest - Indiana

Great Plains - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota

Intermountain West - Utah, Wyoming, Idaho - Alaska also questionable.

he doesn't have the Jewish vote, and it's a red state.

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Michigan will be the toughest primary for Obama.

I've got an extra bedroom, and I'm about an hour's drive from the Underground Railroad.

But I travelled extensively through the Gulf States while I lived there (hubby worked for a Telecom company down there)...

It's a frightening experience to be "off-white" and female down there, let me assure you - especially when you are married to a white man. It still scares me just to think about some of it. Up until then I had quite literally, never experienced true racism.

I wouldn't ever go back. Nevernevernever. I am sure there is just as much racism elsewhere in the USA, but in the Deep South it is both immediately palpable and amply demonstrated.

North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Montana, Arizona, Arkansas, Virginia, West Virginia,
and Missouri.

No shot in hell in these 25 states for Obama (or any Dem for that matter), with the states in the subject line the biggest no shots in hell.

Almost no shot in hell for Obama: Florida

Slim chance, but likely defeat for Obama: Nevada, Colorado and Ohio

Toss-Up: Iowa and New Mexico

Good chance for Obama: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire

The rest are the Democratic base: no shot for any Repuke

but my guess is that any Democratic presidential candidate will have trouble in Alaska. We may be getting rid of a couple of our Republican congressional representatives, but I think the presidential race will be the Republicans' to win.

I'm thinking Reagan-sized victory.