Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

I'm looking at the NH results, and, wait a second, help me out.......

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread		 This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:22 PM
Original message
I'm looking at the NH results, and, wait a second, help me out.......
New Hampshire - 239 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 79%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Clinton,Hillary Dem 84,951 39%
Obama , Barack Dem 78,521 36%
Edwards , John Dem 36,566 17%
Richardson , Bill Dem 9,968 5%

http://www.concordmonitor.com/

So Hillary is 6430 votes ahead, with 20% of precincts left. But an additional 4% for Obama is about 8,000 votes.

Is my math that bad, or is this still up in the air ?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
flowomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. Obama obviously didn't think so...
given the concession speech and all
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ecstatic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
33. I was surprised at how quickly he conceded, to be honest
I mean, seriously, there was still the possibility of him tying or something. Not to sound snarky, because I like him, but it gave me flashbacks of Kerry.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HeraldSquare212 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. the population in the unreported areas must be too small
to make up the difference
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. A precinct is a precinct,
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 11:27 PM by FogerRox
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DaveinMD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. not all precincts
have equal numbers of voters.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
3. That would be a huge swing in the remaining votes.
So yes, technically it is still 'up in the air', but pratically it is safely called for Clinton.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
4. CNN wasn't going to call it.
And then got the call from upstairs to call the race. John King didn't seem so sure.

It'll be 1.5-2% by the end.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. Wouldn't it be weird if they have to call it back?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I would giggle my ass off if that happened!!
...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. Stranger things have happened.
I thought CNN called it way too early. It was like they got the call from corporate to disregard their own analysts.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. yes that would be weird there 1% difference right now!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bluerthanblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:25 PM
Response to Original message
6. I don't think your math is bad-
and I'm uncomfortable with them calling it so soon- but it will all come out in the end.

And as everyone has been telling us all along- it's only NH- and we don't really matter that much anyhow:shrug:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #6
14. Awww, you matter...
:hi:

So, did you predict any of this?

Did you feel that Obama wasn't doing as well as predicted; or that
Clinton was doing better than predicted?

They way Bill seemed to be running off the rails today, I would say
that even he didn't predict this.

I'd love to hear what you thought, since you were there!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #14
24. I was there over the weekend
Same High school, in Nashua, Obama Event on saturday had more people than HIllary, but Hillary's event had more energy.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
unapatriciated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
20. You matter
but so do we and Super Tuesday is just around the corner. It's close and anything can happen. Besides I have always been for the underdog.;)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
dweller Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
8. Go DK !
Kucinich , Dennis Dem 3,153 1%

yeh, you forgot Dennis.
dp
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
9. If Your Calculation is Correct, Sir
He would need to get that eight thousand out of a pool of about forty thousand, and thus be running twenty percent above his combined competition in those precincts. Nowhere is his support so strong relative to the rest for that to be a practical proposition.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. Hey Magistrate, long time. If it was me I might have waited another 20 minutes
...or so. But then I am not that practical of a proposition.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. Indeed, Sir
Always a pleasure top see you about the place.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. CNN was holding off calling until Obama spoke.
They figured he conceded, which he did. I did hear there are a couple college towns still outstanding. So, quit getting my hopes up. ;)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #10
19. It'll be alot closer than when they called it.
What sucks is that Richardson and Kucinich are more than 3 times the difference.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. He did a great job.
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 11:44 PM by AtomicKitten
I'm very happy about that. He was gracious in his concession speech, as I would expect ;). I think he's shown he's for real, so it's on to South Carolina and Nevada where he is doing well in polling (for whatever that's worth, right? jeez, could they be any further off? I'm afraid their Magic 8 ball predictions shooed indies to the GOP ballot thinking Barack was safe, but I digress...) It is a bit frustrating to look at the support going to others, but that is their democratic right to do their thing. No worries. Obama needed this as motivation to up his game, and I do believe he's got the right stuff.

On edit, with 87% reporting, it's 39-37.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. I think the polling was off because there was only a 5 day difference.
I'm content. But I think he needs to step up his game in the debates and make her make mistakes. The media will eat it up. I also think Edwards will step up his attacks on Hillary. He needs to come in second in SC. I have no doubt Obama will come back and win this thing. NV and SC are a whole different ball game from IA and NH.

:7
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Fresh_Start Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
12. look at the margin of victory tab
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NH.html

most of the uncounted votes are in areas where Clinton has a substantial lead.
if the votes to be counted match the distribution in those counties, Clinton wins
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #12
22. Yeah, that could be the clincher, but now its down to a 2% margin


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Fresh_Start Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. its been 2% for a pretty long time
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 11:49 PM by NYCALIZ
think about it this way....
Obama has to catch up 6000 votes to win.
Given the map of where the votes still to be counted remain...where can Obama make up 6000 votes.

I think the college towns are already in.
He doesn't have any other demographic which he's dominating.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. back to 3% margin, 89% reporting, get me a fork, i'm done
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 12:05 AM by FogerRox
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Fresh_Start Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. he was expected to win in colleges....he wins the 18-25
and it looks like he did win that demographic
but look at norfolk (dartmouth) he won, but he only won by 1500 votes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Silent3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
17. Your basic arithmetic is okay, it's your statistics that needs work.
80% of the votes is roughly 210,000 votes. So 100% is about 262,000 votes -- 52,000 votes left to go.

Could Obama pull ahead 8000 votes out of the remaining 52,000? Arithmetically yes. Statistically, very, very, very unlikely.

Just to tie, Obama would have to be 15% ahead of Clinton among the uncounted voters, which is 18% different from the rest of the state.

Unless there's a huge demographic differences between the counted areas vs. the uncounted areas, there's no good reason for such a huge difference in voter preference to exist in the two different groups.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #17
26. We saw stranger crap than that in the 2004 General
one nice college town could do it. Some one else said the unreported precincts were in areas where HRC has already done well. So that makes it a taller hill to climb.

My Guy Edwards took a very weak 3rd,

sigh....


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
21. Will you look at that, it got closer
Clinton , Hillary Dem 92,968 39%
Obama , Barack Dem 87,128 37%

Obama is 5840 behind, he picked up 1%....

just saying...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #21
29. Did someone say Edwards stayed at 17% all night?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Fresh_Start Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. looked that way to me
I kept hoping to see him get to 20, never happened
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #30
34. well now that's interesting.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu May 16th 2024, 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC