The Obama Loss and Looking Forward

I've already congradulated Clinton supporters in another thread. To Obama supporters, I think ultimately this loss was probably needed. First of all, the expectations for Obama were getting unbelievably high. It was like people thought he was the Second Coming or something...as if he were a Demi-God. At least that's the way the MSM was treating it...this loss brings us back down to Earth where we should be. Better we're brought back down now, instead of later on. Secondly, if Obama were to win handily like the polls suggested, he would have had ALL of the guns trained on him for weeks and weeks until the convention. The Clinton campaign was becoming irrationally desperate in their attempt to destroy him. You're a fool if you think the MSM wouldn't have turned against him...and then there are the Rethugs who would know ahead of time who our nominee was likely to be. By Clinton winning, all of that is delayed. Lastly, I have to admit that I despise our current Party nomination system...it's entirely too lopsided towards only TWO states out of 50. It's simply wrong that Iowa and New Hampshire have as much power and sway that they do...even though I'm an Obama supporter, this way will probably be better for the country.

There's a lot of Humble Pie being eaten today. The Media first of all should feel like total and complete idiots. The Democratic Party IS NOT the Republicans Party. Democrats hate coronations and this is the second time someone was proclaimed inevitable by the MSM just to lose. Clinton was thought inevitable going into Iowa and looked what happened...she came in 3rd. Obama had all but won...it was just by "how much" in New Hampshire...and look what happened. The Republicans don't mind being told who to vote for, they believe in that whole idea of it being someone's "turn." Someone else eating humble pie is the winner of New Hampshire herself...Hillary Clinton. They now know Obama is a real threat for the nomination and has awaken something in the voters spirit. Just because he barely lost by 2% is not going to change anything. The Clinton's know they came this close to it all being over...they dodged a serious bullet in New Hampshire. I'm sure they're glad they don't have to run a Super Tuesday strategy now...because frankly ST strategies always fail. If they were successful, you would see more people doing it come election time. It's either an act of desperation or stupidity...which is why Guiliani also is all but done. I'm sure he's kicking himself in the ass now since he didn't compete in the early states. The Obama Campaign is also having their share of humble pie...for thinking they were going to go cruise control to the General Election. They have to fight it out now, and in the end, it's probably better this way.

The weird story in all of this is John Edwards. Now let's be realistic here people...I'm not saying his supporters should stop supporting him. As long as he's in, he should be your guy. But Obama's loss means more to Edwards than it probably does to even Obama himself. Edwards was really counting on Obama kicking Clinton square in the gut. Then he could talk about how it she should drop out and it would be between him and Obama. That wasn't only his best-case scenario...it was his ONLY-CASE SCENARIO! Edwards doesn't win with Obama AND Clinton in the race...especially now that Clinton's won one. They suck up too much oxygen, and the Dem race isn't as wide open as the Republican race. They both have tons more money than he does, and frankly can outlast him. Every state poll I've seen shows Edwards in a distant or close 3rd. He's not winning anywhere...and likely won't now that Clinton has won her a state. It's totally possible that he goes through Super Tuesday without a single win. Him and Obama are splitting the anti-establishment...anti-Clinton vote. Ultimately, that only benefits Clinton.

Barack Obama is in good shape. When they look back, they'll see this more as a missed opportunity than anything. He's still in good shape in South Carolina and Nevada is up for grabs. There's nothing else he could have done to change the outcome of last night. His message is resonating and has CHANGED this entire nomination process on both sides. The People want change and Washington has heard that loud and clear. Obama has the money and resources to take this all the way to the end. Anything can still happen in this race.

I want a fair contest here but certain members are determined to make Clinton look bad at every turn.

As far as Obama is concerned, he's got a rather big problem today. Hilary not only stopped his momentum, she put a bomb under the juggernaut and blew it off the tracks.

I've heard that old phrase bounced around today "Iowans pick corn, New Hampshire picks Presidents", the fear for Obama is, how could his bounce just evaporate like that. His national poll rise and SC rise only came from his win in Iowa, Hilary has just probably knocked that for six and will probably send those through the roof again. Can he regain momentum again, I'm not so sure.

Obama was first in Iowa by 7 or 8 points.
Obama was a very close 2nd in NH.

Hillary was 3rd in Iowa
Hillary was 1st in a squeaker in NH

The fact that the media hype it all up and down, and angered NH women (and NH doesn't like others telling them how to vote, and the media crowned Obama for three days), and Hillary did her thing, and Bill did his is how Hillary stopped the momentum. With a lot of help.

Hillary had been ahead in NH for a year.

Hillary pulled out the theatrics and played her "gender" card

and still Obama nearly beat her.

But interpret it as you will.

Clinton and Obama are just about even now. And if you want to be technical, when Obama beat Clinton...he beat her in a landslide. She BARELY beat him in NH. Has Obama's momentum stopped...yes. But things like this flucuate, and we have 11 days left until NV.

super delegates, just delegates chosen by the voters.) She beat him in New HAmpshire by only 7500 votes. Considering that most polls over the last year have had her well ahead, I think Obama is doing very well.