I don't buy that there was racism or rigged machines.

I really don't buy that there was any racism or rigged machines. The exit polls clearly match with the final result. I've seen 2 different exit polls and they both showed Hillary in the lead (39-37 and 41-3x). I think Obama lost on a course of events beyond his control. Between crying, irons, Edwards getting nasty with Hillary, Mathews, and the rest, women stood up for Hillary.

So if you believe the machines were rigged, make sure the ballots are all hand counted (they should be anyway).

If you believe the Bradley bullshit, forget about it. There's much more plausible reasons that the polls flipped. One of them being that at least 17% decided that day.

Don't discount the box.

Obama's ads were monotone yelling/speechifying, generalities, crowd noises, and pap. Irritating. The message that came across was: Follow this guy because he hectors you, using trite, general phrases.

Clinton had two good ones--one where she looked into the camera and spoke to the voter, and another that was just music (good music, too), images and the written word.

So I don't buy that either.

One with music and one with her talking into the camera.

That was one fact almost completely ignored by our McMedia
this week in NH: the 17% undecided voters.

But I find it ironic that just yesterday there were a few posts saying that HRC lost Iowa because of sexism. The ironic part is that it totally out of the question to consider anything to do with race regarding Obama.

When it comes down to it.

even if more than a few see her as the weaker GE candidate:

==One line of attack that Mrs. Clinton has used on Mr. Obama did not appear to work here: that she was more electable in a general election. The survey of voters leaving the polls found that 46 percent of respondents named Mr. Obama as the candidate most likely to defeat a Republican in November; 36 percent said that of Mrs. Clinton.==

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/us/politics/09assess....

:shrug:

As I understand it a considerable number of voting precincts in NH are counted by hand and do not use electronic machines. A good test would be to take a look at the results in "electronic" districts and compare with areas that use electronic equipment.

One thing for sure is that NH uses equipment that can be easily hacked. See video at www.blackboxvoting.org. That doesn't mean there was hacking yesterday in NH, it just means it is possible.

I also think there are other factors to consider. First, until Iowa Clinton always had been ahead in NH. Prior to Iowa Obama would have been thrilled to end up within 4 or 5 points of Hillary in NH. Now he ends up even closer and suddenly he's treated as the "loser" and she, who actually did worse than expected prior to Iowa, is touted as a huge winner. It's an expectations game and the Clinton machine pulled out all the stops to SUPPRESS expectations and convey doom and gloom. It worked.

Finally, I think Obama got both ahead of reality and started reading his own press clippings. In interviews Monday he sounded like a guy who thought his emergence and ultimate success was inevitable. Huge mistake.

I have no doubt Obama is the real reform/change candidate. All I needed to see was Terry McAuliffe gloating on behalf of the Clintons and it reminded me of everything bad in the Democratic Party. The lobbyists favorite fundraiser and Mr. Fix It for insiders, is hardly a change agent and he's running the Clinton road show.

:hi:

Watching McAwful gloat was amusing. They ran a terrible campaign and he still gets to party. :eyes:

or did you see exit poll data adjusted to match the election returns?

Carol Shea porter was 5 points behind an incumbent repub congressman in the 1st district of NH.
Everyone official wrote her off, she went on to win the seat & helped turn NH Blue.

Late polling is not a very good indicator in NH. It could be the weather, the stubborn cranky NE attitude, or just the plain realization we voters get tired of telling pollsters the truth *every bloody day* for 6 weeks prior to the election!!

are part of the process. If the local DEM do not send or cover the total polling day, it is your(our collective fault)fault. We are the volunteers who are responsible to insure there is no funny stuff going on.

I am sick of the victim bs, in my precinct the poll watchers of 30 years can tell you who died or is in the hospital if Joe or Jane doesn't show up by a certain time.

If Iowa was closer to where he is from and NH is close to NY...just a thought...easier to get volunteers there...

students who voted for Obama. That might have been a big factor.

thesis. I agree with you.