Here are some of my thoughts on the polls:

This is from my blog I've started up because I want somewhere to post my political junkiness:

Everyone is screaming at the top of their lungs about how wrong the polls were. However, what is interesting is that according to Real Clear Politics' average, Obama's average support was roughly 38% going into the New Hampshire Primary(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls) and he ended up getting 37%. There's certainly no scandal in that. Clinton's support, though, surged from 30 to 39% from the polling average. When one disects the numbers we find that the women's vote came out very differently than expected. American Research Group, based in NH, projected Obama to win the women's vote by 3 points and instead lost it by 13%. Obama's support among men was in line with what the polling showed and his support among women was actually largely in line with what he was polling going in. Clinton just happened to clean up among undecided women which is not entirely surprising.

With how dramatically polling supposedly shifted after Iowa, it seems possible to me that in the couple days after the debates that they could have shifted back. Clinton had a pretty good debate performance as the exit poll reflects: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM. Among those who said the debates were very important, 48% of the total vote, she won by 8%.

Also, the time when voters decided is very important. A huge chunk(34%) said they decided before a month ago and they broke for Clinton with 48% of the vote. Obama did lead substantially among those deciding between a month and a few days ago. This also possibly reflects the fact a lot of voters voted absentee and thus were not impacted by Iowa.

Then, we come to the raw strangeness of New Hampshire. In 2006, there were two incumbent Republican Representatives who seemed to be in pretty good shape. The western district, being challenged by Democrat Paul Hodes was a possible pick up as it is generally more liberal containing the Vermont border region. However, the eastern district was completely safe by nearly every measure and it too fell to the Democrats. This was a stunner. While I projected the bulk of House races correctly, I never saw that one coming and neither did anyone else except the most optimistic Democrats. This isn't limited to New Hampshire though. In Georgia in 2002, Governor Roy Barnes(D) was expected to coast to a 8-10 point win over challenger Sonny Purdue(R). The result: Purdue won the governorship by 5 points.

The lesson here: Polls are usually pretty good, but don't bet the farm on them. Some races are hard to predict due to various factors. Primaries are particularly notorious due to the fact they rely more on turnout operations than general elections.



http://bqreport.blogspot.com/2008/01/quick-thought-on-polls.html

unfortunately, I fear it'll fall on deaf ears here today. But I appreciate the breakdown in numbers and look forward to looking at your website.

I will crunch a few more numbers as the day goes on.

My wife has supported Edwards for the past few months. If a pollster called, she'd say she supported Edwards. Last night she said she secretly was rooting for Clinton to do well and told me behind closed doors she might vote for Clinton even though she likes Edwards' postions better.

I always found it disappointing when women voted with their spouses instead of choosing for themselves. Maybe this time they're not casting Stepford wives votes. Maybe they are telling their spouses one thing and doing another.

(I hope this doesn't seem offensive. I'm not speaking about the women on DU. I'm speaking about the women I know that get their news from In Touch and US Weekly and then are told by their husbands who to vote for in the election.)

I am not going to rule that out.

those voters who were undecided at the time the poll was taken. After they had voted, however, those numbers were reflected in the exit polls.

There were a lot of flaws in those pre-election polls. I also want to study shifts in NH demographics and see how that might have impacted it.