"Before Obamaiania in Iowa, Sen. Clinton stood at 39% in the New Hampshire polls.

hedgehog

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:21 AM
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"Before Obamaiania in Iowa, Sen. Clinton stood at 39% in the New Hampshire polls.

Last night, she finished at 39%."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/

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Fresh_Start

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:35 AM
Response to Original message

1. I wonder to what degree the caucus environment is significant

Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 11:35 AM by NYCALIZ

to emotional voting?

Lock me in a room with hundreds of screaming people for a couple of hours....
its like a rock concert or football game, it terms of unrestrained emotion.

I'll take civilized voting anyday.

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goldcanyonaz

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #1

4. Caucuses are easier to bully others into switching sides. You can vote your heart in a primary.

You have to be very strong to not be run down by the bully mentality of a caucus.

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Fresh_Start

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #4

6. Thats my gut feeling as well

I also think that caucus is more 'fun' to college kids so that might be why they showed up so heavily in Iowa.

But I've never been in a caucus state so I'm making an inference.
Right now, I wouldn't go to a caucus though I might have (if my friends were) when I was younger.

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Anouka

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Wed Jan-09-08 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #4

12. Heart = Bradley effect?

Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 01:57 PM by Anouka

was the post-Iowa effect jump real, or was it telling pollsters what they wanted to hear?

also, if Hillary finished exactly where she was pre-Iowa... where was everyone else pre-Iowa?

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maddiejoan

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:38 AM
Response to Original message

2. first intelligent post

that I've read today.

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goldcanyonaz

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message

3. self delete, wrong place, sorry.

Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 11:41 AM by goldcanyonaz

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MadBadger

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:43 AM
Response to Original message

5. But where was Obama in those polls

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hedgehog

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Wed Jan-09-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #5

7. As near as I can make out, at about 26%-28%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Polling

Scroll down to New Hampshire and see what you think. IMO, if it hadn't been for Iowa, today's big story would behow Obama is taking on Hillary.

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killbotfactory

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Wed Jan-09-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. Or If it weren't for the polls blasting his numbers through the roof

after Iowa.

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MadBadger

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Wed Jan-09-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. So Obama jumped 10 points after Iowa

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hedgehog

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Wed Jan-09-08 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #10

11. ANd there is weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth because he didn't jump 12! nt

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Maven

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Wed Jan-09-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message

9. Amazing!

Thanks.

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hedgehog

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Wed Jan-09-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message

13. In 1968, it was LBJ 49%, McCarthy 42%. So if one considers Hillary Clinton

the presumed heir apparent, then Obama's coming within 3 points of her is more impressive than McCarthy's numbers compared to LBJ's!

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