Odd Little Fact from the Exit Polls

(edited title because of misuse of word "factoid")


I was just doing some reading on the Youth Vote and something really strange popped out.


The exit/entrance polling in Iowa showed that there wasn't particularly that much of a difference between voters 17-24 and 25-29 . The %'s pretty much matched between the 2 age groups.


Iowa HC JE BO
Ages 17-24 10% 14% 57%
Ages 25-29 15% 12% 57%



However, in New Hampshire there was a startling difference between voters 18-24 and 25-29. The 18-24 year olds went overwhelmingly for Obama, similar to the results in Iowa. However, Obama dropped 25 points and actually LOST the vote among those 25-29?



Hampshire HC JE BO
Ages 18-24 22% 9% 60%
Ages 25-29 37% 18% 35%

Source (http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080109005747&newsLang=en)


So how do you win one group by nearly 40 points and then lose a very similar group by 2??


Thoughts?

Not sure how the student bodies break down. (In-state/out-of-state? Enrollments?)

That's not hard to figure out.

You should work for a polling company.

The question is WHY would a block who voted nearly identically in Iowa, radically split their vote in New Hampshire.

the September 11 conspiracy is boring you now?

Where in my OP did I mention conspriacy or anything otherwise nefarious?

I am taking the exit polls as factual and noticing something very strange in them and looking for thoughtful analysis.

What interests differ between 18-24 year olds in New Hampshire that DIDN'T differ in Iowa.

Why would one block vote nearly identically in one state and then vote radically differently in another?

If you care to offer analysis, give it a shot.

Passive aggressive was never your strong suit.

It's not even implied.

That's my age group and I have no idea. I think young people have to be fiercely steadfast and vigilante during this election. We cannot afford to keep the status quo. It's our future and our children's future on the line.

Merriam Webster - Factoid: An invented fact believed to be true because of its appearance in print


I know, I know. Common usage has made it acceptable the way you used it. But I blame the media and marketing folks for being lazy, using factoid incorrectly, and making us all believe it's okay. I want it back!

haha. thanks for the "factoid". ;)

USAmerican politics are confusing to me.

Does the candidate that pays the most to bus the most students in from out of state not usually win? Fill me in, here, folks, 'cause that's exactly how it seems to me!

I wonder if candidates that cannot afford to pay for votes ever win?

So someone can't just "bus in" a bunch of out of state people. However, if a college is on break and the people are legal residents of the state, a campaign could provide some transportation for those legal residents to come and vote, but I don't think that would be enough to really swing things all that much.

Young volunteers are brought in to help the campaigns to 'get out the vote' (GOTV) by manning phone banks, going door to door etc

Students who live at colleges in a state are legitimate voters in that state. It's the law established by the Supreme Court over 30 years ago. You may have noticed campaigns send cars out to the elderly or infirm, for a different example, to bring them to the polls. It's not buying votes to do that no more than it would be buying votes to provide transportation to students from a neighboring state, say fifty miles away, back to their college voting precincts in time for them to vote. I don't, however, know if that took place. It was talked about. But even if it did, it's GOTV (Get Out The Vote) activity, not vote-buying.

It may have been less well coordinated among young adults in NH, I'm not sure. But the young women voters who did not go for Clinton in Iowa came out for her in NH. Partly this is because she realized she had been complacent in Iowa and spent three days reaching out in NH to that age group. You would have noticed, gone were the old Clintonites from the background shots and in were the young females. Feminism also would have played a part with the women's vote once the media circus surrounding the tearful moment went at full blast. It didn't move my support from Obama to Hillary. But if I had been 27 and this was taking place, I know I would have been at the barricades. As it was, it made me extremely uncomfortable.

the 25-29 should have one election under their belts. I wonder if part of the shift is due to the fact that in Iowa it was all academic, whereas in New Hampshire a past experience of watching a favored candidate denied the presidency may have pushed some votes. The younger group may have a more "in your face" attitude and tendency not to reconsider...again just a guess.

Open voting in Iowa vs secret ballot in NH - Also, in Iowa's Caucus, if your first choice candidate failed to receive a minimum of 15% of the vote, those voters had the option of choosing their 'second' choice (or going home) which skewed some candidates totals upward more than others - Factor in the backlash to the media and pundit pig-pile on 'the Hilary Moment' - The exit polling suggests a sea-change shift captured especially in the 25-29 age group (and female voters in general). Additionally, a MUCH smaller percentage of voters participate in a caucus than in a primary so a primary casts a wider net and more 'casual' voters participate while a caucus has a greater concentration of 'activists' - Also, I believe that in NH, 55-60% of all voters in the Democratic Primary were women who voted heavily for Clinton (she lost the female vote in Iowa) - Maybe Oprah had more clout in Iowa...

is what I gather from this.

College Vote, evidentally it worked, I heard this reported on CNN